Why Is Filling Your Car Costing £27 More — And Will It Get Worse?

UK drivers have been hit hard at the pump since the US-Israel war with Iran erupted on 28 February 2025. According to the RAC, petrol prices peaked at 158.3p per litre while diesel reached 191.5p — meaning a full tank of diesel now costs around £27 more than before the conflict began.

The root cause is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows. The strait has been effectively closed since the war began, severely disrupting global energy supply chains. Under normal conditions, around 138 ships cross the strait daily — BBC Verify analysis shows only a handful have passed since a temporary ceasefire was announced.

Brent crude oil — the global benchmark — spiked from $73 to over $126 per barrel, the highest level since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Analysts note that every $10 rise in oil prices adds roughly 7p per litre at the pump, with a two-week lag between wholesale markets and forecourt prices.

After 46 consecutive days of increases — a record-breaking streak — average fuel prices began to ease slightly on 16 April. However, the RAC warns petrol may rise again due to seasonal demand in the US, while diesel is expected to continue falling as European heating oil demand drops with warmer temperatures.

The Strait remains a critical uncertainty. Peace negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled, and oil and gas facilities across the Gulf have been damaged, reducing global refining capacity. Shell's CEO has warned of potential fuel shortages in Europe, and the International Energy Agency has flagged that Europe may have only around six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has stated there is no immediate shortage of petrol, diesel, or jet fuel. The government has also announced a £53 million support package for households that rely on heating oil, particularly in Northern Ireland and rural areas.

On household energy bills, those under the current price cap are protected until the end of June — but bills could rise when the next cap takes effect in July, depending on how the conflict develops.

Source: BBC

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