Europe's Crisis Just Took A Dramatic Turn | Australian Strikes Worsen EU Gas Catastrophe

Europe's Crisis Just Took A Dramatic Turn | Australian Strikes Worsen EU Gas Catastrophe

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Energy experts are painting a picture of global gas markets on edge due to the looming threat of strikes at Australian natural gas facilities. Traders are sweating over the possibility that an extended production stoppage could constrict worldwide supplies and drive European prices skyward.

Over in Western Australia, the stage is set for daily showdowns as U.S. energy heavyweight Chevron locks horns with worker unions from the Gorgon and Wheatstone projects. What's at stake?

Well, it's all about pay and job security. Acting as the referee, Australia's independent workplace relations tribunal, the Fair Work Commission, is orchestrating these face-offs. But, if they can't see eye to eye, the alarm clock will ring at 6 a.m. local time on Thursday, signaling the start of the strikes.

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Australia's potential strike worries are giving Europe's gas prices a rollercoaster ride. It's one of the world's top liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and these fears are making European gas prices jump around. Experts say this could keep happening for a while.

Jacob Mandel, a senior researcher at Aurora Energy Research in the UK, says the global natural gas market is on edge. There's not much room for flexibility, so if Australia's strikes happen, European gas prices might go up.

He mentioned that even small news bits about what's happening with those Australian facilities are shaking up the gas prices. It's like a game of Jenga—remove one piece, and the whole tower wobbles.

If those strikes Down Under follow through, European gas prices could easily pass 40 euros per megawatt hour. Right now, they're at 33.5 euros, but last month, they briefly spiked to around 43 euros. Still, they're far from last summer's wild ride when prices shot past 300 euros.

Kaushal Ramesh, the head of gas and LNG analytics at Rystad Energy, says there's trouble brewing at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone places, so brace for more price rollercoasters until they sort things out.

However, Ramesh doesn't think it'll mess up production too much. He says Chevron might not want to keep the strikes going because giving in to the workers' demands might hurt less than losing a ton of cash due to production problems.

So, it's kind of like a political scenario, and things can get a bit crazy. But for now, Asian buyers aren't losing sleep over it. Plus, Japan and Korea will have more nuclear power this winter, so there's that to balance things out.

This turbulence stems from the Eurozone's determined effort to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuel exports. This push comes in response to the Russia and Ukraine conflict, which prompted the European Union to rethink its energy strategy.

In a positive development, the EU managed to reach its target of filling gas storage facilities to 90% capacity well ahead of schedule. This accomplishment raised hopes that the bloc has stockpiled enough fuel supplies to ensure that households remain warm during the upcoming winter.

However, even with this progress, the gas market in the region remains sensitive and prone to fluctuations. Henning Gloystein, who serves as a director for energy, climate, and natural resources at the political consultancy Eurasia Group, points out the nervousness in Europe's gas markets.

He highlights an interesting episode from August when gas prices surged due to the looming threat of a strike by LNG workers in distant Australia. This incident underscores just how interconnected and responsive global energy markets are to potential disruptions.

Gloystein also cautions that this winter could bring "real disruptions." These could range from Norwegian storms causing outages to a reduction in the supply of Russian gas to Europe. He identifies two significant risks that Europe faces: the possibility of a halt in pipeline transit through Ukraine and a suspension of Russian LNG shipments. These risks are tangible and have the potential to impact energy supplies in the region significantly.

Adding to the complexity and uncertainty is the future of Russian gas transit through Ukrainian territory. The current agreement is set to expire at the end of the next year, introducing a substantial element of uncertainty.

This "big question mark" contributes to the cost calculations in Europe's energy markets, as market participants grapple with the implications of potential changes in transit arrangements. Back in mid-August, Oleksiy Chernyshov, the CEO of Naftogaz, Ukraine's largest oil and gas company, sat down with CNBC to shed light on the intricate nature of the Russian gas transit agreement.
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