Sea Level Rise Seminar: 2021-06-15, Peter Sheng

Sea Level Rise Seminar: 2021-06-15
Speaker:Peter Sheng
Title: Role of Coastal Wetlands in Buffering Storm-Induced Flood, Wave, and Property Loss in A Changing Climate

Abstract: Coastal communities throughout the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts are subject to increasing coastal flood, wave, and property loss due to compound effects of sea level rise, tropical cyclones (TCs), and changing landscape. Coastal communities are considering the use of wetlands, including marshes and mangroves, as green infrastructures for buffering storm-induced flood, wave, and property loss. This talk presents the results of a recent study (funded by NOAA through the National Estuarine Research Reserves Science Collaborative program) on the role of coastal wetlands in reducing storm-induced flood/wave damage on residential structures in Piermont Marsh, New York as well as New Jersey. Using a coupled hydrodynamic-wave modeling system, we simulated the storm surge and wave during Superstorm Sandy, a rare Black Swan TC, and a TC ensemble determined by the NASHM model. The study found that coastal wetlands reduced the potential flood loss by 8% in NJ as well as the Phragmites-dominant Piermont Marsh during Superstorm Sandy. During the 1% annual chance flood/wave, coastal wetlands reduced 52% and 11% of the potential loss in NJ and Piermont Marsh, respectively. The buffering capacity of coastal wetlands depends significantly on the at-risk property value, the integrated flood and wave effects during the individual TC or TC ensemble, and flooded wetland area. The role of coastal wetlands for buffering Piermont Village in 2020-2100 is considered by including a potential marsh restoration plan to replace 40 acres of the Piermont Marsh during 2020-2025, SLR scenario in 2050 and 2100 according to the NPCC (2014) report, and TCs determined by NASHM. For 2100, both the worst case scenario of complete marsh loss and a best case scenario of high accretion rate and marsh growth are considered. For NJ, we considered the expected value of the probabilistic distribution of SLR by Kopp et al. (2014). The results indicate that coastal wetlands will likely retain their flood protection value in the late 21st century.

Видео Sea Level Rise Seminar: 2021-06-15, Peter Sheng канала NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies