Sea Level Rise Seminar, 2021-11-23: Manoochehr Shirzaei

Sea Level Rise Seminar, 2021-11-23

Speaker: Manoochehr Shirzaei
Title: Coastal Land Elevation, an overlooked tipping element in the climate system, and implications for Relative Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

Abstract: A climate tipping point occurs when an abrupt change in the system is triggered by a slight change in one or a group of forcing mechanisms. Moreover, the climate system components that can pass the tipping point are called tipping elements. The tipping elements that can pass their tipping points within the 21st century are of great importance in terms of policy and developing mitigation and resilience plans. Such policy-relevant elements are only recognized in the cryosphere, atmosphere/ocean circulation, and biosphere. Here, I argue that coastal land elevation is a new key tipping element in the lithospheric component of the climate system, which is often overlooked.

Next, I will discuss some of the recent advances in modern multitemporal InSAR algorithms and present examples demonstrating the value of high-resolution Radar EO satellite data for mapping surface deformation and change monitoring with implications for relative sea-level rise and flooding hazards. I will report high-resolution vertical land motion measurements along the U.S. coasts obtained from InSAR, spanning 2007-2021. The findings include subsidence rates of up to several millimeters per year affecting different parts of the U.S. West, East, and Gulf coasts, particularly deltas, wetlands, artificial landfills, and Holocene mud deposits as well as essential infrastructures such as key airports. It is also estimated that between 4.3-8.7 million people in California's coastal communities are exposed to subsidence rates faster than 1 mm/yr. In combination with future projections of sea-level rise under different climate warming scenarios, it is estimated that in San Francisco Bay, CA and Houston, TX, an area of 125 km2-429 km2 and 186 km2-1157 km2, respectively, will be subject to inundation and flooding by 2100.

These sets of case studies highlight the importance of vertical land motion in evaluating coastal hazards and EO satellite data for developing management, adaptation, and resilience plans.

Видео Sea Level Rise Seminar, 2021-11-23: Manoochehr Shirzaei канала NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies