Bayes Theorem Example ​​(SOA Exam P – Probability – General Probability Module)

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After completing this video you should be able to:

- State Bayes Theorem and the law of total probability and use them to calculate conditional probabilities.

Example given in the video:

A health study tracked a group of persons for five year. At the beginning of the study, 20% were classified as heavy smokers, 30% as light smokers, and 50% as nonsmokers.

Results of the study showed that light smokers were twice as likely as nonsmokers to die during the five-year study, but only half as likely as heavy smokers.

A randomly selected participant from the study died during the five-year period.

Calculate the probability that the participant was a heavy smoker.

Видео Bayes Theorem Example ​​(SOA Exam P – Probability – General Probability Module) канала AnalystPrep