Trump vs Biden 2020 Election Map Prediction | QT Politics

At this point in the race for the presidency, things look pretty good for Joe Biden, and for Donald Trump, not so good...

Trump vs Biden 2020 Election Map Prediction | QT Politics

The Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings predicts Democrats will get 308 electoral votes, meaning he doesn't need to win any of the toss ups to secure a win in the 2020 election.

Analysis by 270 to Win echoes the one by Cook, with a consensus map that forecasts 278 electoral votes for Biden in the safe likely or leans category. On their polls-based map, it's more of the same, with 291 votes for Biden without tapping into the toss ups.

A less certain map by Real Clear Politics gives Biden 212 electoral votes to 115 for Trump, with a huge swath of Toss Up, accounting for 211 electoral college points. To win the white house, according to this projection, Biden would need to secure just 27% of the Toss Ups.

Currently, FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 73% chance of winning the election, and just 27% for Trump. That's actually conservative compared to other forecasts. The economist, for example, gives Joe Biden a 91% chance of winning the electoral college vote.

Still, I don't think I'm the only one who can't help but shake the feeling that we've seen this movie before. The economist was bullish on Hilary Clinton, too, releasing an article just prior to the election titled,

“Hillary Clinton has got this. Probably. Very probably.”

FiveThirtyEight agreed, giving Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning the election, to 28.6 for Trump. Shortly after the election, they bragged about how accurate this prediction was. And indeed, that was accurate, compared to outlets that gave Clinton odds of 90% or more. Among the worst was Huffington Post, which gave Clinton a 98% chance of winning, and Trump a 1.7% shot.

So, while I'm going to construct an updated electoral college prediction map in this video, I'm also going to encourage you to learn the lessons of the past. If you do catch yourself not doubting the numbers, I do encourage you to ask:

Why so certain?

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Question Time features video essays about politics, history and culture, with a particular focus on the United States of America. Topics are inspired by events and trends in news and current affairs, and attempt to provide context for a robust discussion in the comments section. All opinions presented in videos are my own, but yours matter, too. Your thoughts are highly valued, even when you don't agree. At the heart of every vibrant democracy are ordinary people, engaged in debate over policy and values.

Sources:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?t=USA_2020_presidential
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast
https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings.072320.2.pdf
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

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