Cyclone threat increasing in Bay of Bengal

A tropical cyclone is developing between India and Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal today, and is likely to rapidly strengthen over the next few days. The storm only has a short window for development, but conditions are extremely favourable with very warm sea surface temperatures. Model projections indicate a landfall in Odisha with winds in excess of 100 miles per hour (160kph), although the track forecast remains very uncertain. It should also be noted that the model consensus has shifted westwards. Rainfall from the direct path of the storm is likely to reach 20 inches (500mm), although enhanced monsoonal activity off to the east of the storm is expected to produce astronomical amounts of rainfall over southern Myanmar, with 48 inches (1200mm) possible.

In the Philippine Sea, another area of interest is near the tropical cyclone threshold, and is merely lacking convection at this time. Further development is expected and a landfall in Samar is now forecasted, with winds near 50 miles per hour (80kph) possible. The storm will intensify quickly as it leaves the Philippines near Catanduanes, and should bulk up to become a significant typhoon as it steers to the northeast.

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