How War in Ukraine is Fuelling a Global Food Crisis: Russia & the Black Sea Grain Deal Explained

Right now, the world is on the brink of a global crisis, and it's because of the breakdown of a deal between Russia and Ukraine over grain in the middle of a fierce war. A disagreement over something like grain may seem minor, but the collapse of this deal has the potential to destabilize the global food market, which could have catastrophic consequences for countries around the world.

0:00 The Global Food Crisis
0:50 The Black Sea Grain Deal
1:19 Ukraine's Importance to Global Food
1:50 Food Security & Insecurity
3:13 How Global Food Supply Works
4:40 Why Russia Pulled out of the Grain Deal
6:51 The Destruction of Ukraine's Agriculture
8:42 A New Deal Between Russia & Ukraine?

So, what exactly is this deal about? Why is Ukraine's so important to the global food supply? Why did Russia pull out of the deal? And is there any chance that the deal can be salvaged? Let's start with the deal itself. When Russia first invaded Ukraine, its navy trapped 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain that was on its way to countries around the world.

This caused an explosion in world food prices. And by July, the United Nations and Turkey had come together to convince Russia to allow Ukrainian food exports to pass through the Black Sea. Fast forward a year and Russia has now pulled out of the deal and is threatening to attack ships that continue to carry Ukrainian food exports. Ukraine is one of the world's biggest producers and exporters of grain (like wheat & maize).

A number of the countries that rely on Ukraine, are places that struggle with food insecurity. According to the World Food Program, one of the leading organizations trying to combat global hunger of the 800 million people dealing with food insecurity, almost half are acutely food insecure, an extreme level of hunger.

That number has dramatically risen since the beginning of the pandemic because of governments experiencing economic issues, climate change and conflicts and war like the war in Ukraine, the EU says that while the deal was in place, Ukraine supplied the WFP with more than 80% of all of its grain.

So, why did Russia decide to pull out of this deal? Russia says the West wasn't honouring its side of the bargain and that it's actually the West that's getting in the way of food reaching global markets.

Like Ukraine, Russia is hugely important to global food supply. The EU and US say that their sanctions aren't directly targeting Russia's grain and fertilizer exports, but Russia says banking/insurance restrictions are causing big problems- e.g. Russia's Agricultural Bank being disconnected from SWIFT. Many Western countries have been hesitant to roll back any of the sanctions placed on Russia, not only because it can be a tricky process, but because it's often very unpopular. Also, many in the West have accused Russia of undermining the deal too. Ukraine says Russian authorities have been deliberately dragging their feet throughout the deal, slowing down exports by delaying registration and inspection of ships.

It’s hard to deny just how much Russia has contributed to the destruction of the agricultural industry of one of the world's biggest food producers. Russia has been accused by human rights groups, experts, and politicians around the world of not only stealing Ukrainian grain but deliberately destroying crops, planting mines on farmland so that it can't be used. Shelling grain storage facilities and destroying the ports that are used to transport grain out of Ukraine.

Experts say Russia Russia’s been becoming more dependent on countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Many of which are struggling with food insecurity.

For the West, alternatives to the deal aren’t great (more expensive, logistics issues etc). Even reaching foreign ports via the Danube River is a big problem, as Russia has been constantly attacking Ukraine's ports there.

This is actually why there are many experts that believe that sanctions relief isn't out of the question because of what's at stake here. The idea is that instead of removing sanctions completely, replacing them with smarter, more targeted sanctions, maybe a way to achieve similar results without hurting vulnerable people in countries around the world.

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