Optimism

The Green Book
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/immunisation-against-infectious-disease-the-green-book

Measles

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/measles

During 2000- 2018, measles vaccination prevented 23.2 million deaths

73% drop in measles deaths

2018

86% of the world's children received one dose of measles vaccine by their first birthday

140 000 measles deaths globally, children under the age of five

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox

Vaccine optimism

https://www.inverse.com/science/9-reasons-you-can-be-optimistic-that-a-vaccine-for-covid-19-will-be-widely-available-in-2021

William Petri, Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia

The immune system clears the virus in 99% + of infections

https://www.psychiatrictimes.com/view/covid-19-has-mortality-rate-declined

Some may have low levels of virus in the body for up to three months

Not normally infectious after day 10

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/end-home-isolation.html

Immune system fails to clear HIV

SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t mutate as HIV does

SARS-CoV-2 needs its spike protein to be infectious

https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-ace2-receptor-how-is-it-connected-to-coronavirus-and-why-might-it-be-key-to-treating-covid-19-the-experts-explain-136928

Antibodies have been proved (in vitro) to bind to the spike protein

Therefore neutralizing the spike protein

Vaccines in clinical trials, generate spike protein antibodies

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/806

Monoclonal antibodies could give passive immunity

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/752

Seven companies developing MABs

Currently being trial for post exposure protection

May also be effective for treatment

Spike protein has many locations where antibodies can bind

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6504/643

Many vulnerable spots

Therefore, many protein changes in the spike protein would be needed to evade neutralizing antibodies

If there were to be several sike protein mutations it would no longer bind into the ACE-2 receptor anyway

Vaccination science is developed

Antibody-dependent enhancement of infection

Allergic reactions

Use of adjuvants

Operation Warp Speed / Multiple vaccine development

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/06/16/fact-sheet-explaining-operation-warp-speed.html

300 million doses of vaccine by January 2021

$ 8 billion

Moderna/NIH, Oxford / AZ, CanSino, Pfizer / Biontech

x 2 to x 4 production of anti-spike neutralizing antibodies

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31605-6/fulltext

Safety demonstrated already

Phase 3 trials well underway

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/phase-3-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins

Manufacturing underway, stockpile ready for the go
Distribution logistics already in place

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Видео Optimism канала Dr. John Campbell