Update, Child cases and lowering fatality rates

Mexico
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/sep/03/coronavirus-live-news-trump-pushes-to-withdraw-who-funding-immediately

Stage 3 trials, October, Sputnik V

Several thousand volunteers will test that vaccine in our country as close as next month

Contest for influence and prestige

US

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/936777?src=wnl_edit_tpal&uac=127834AR&impID=2547108&faf=1

Child cases

43 states report age data

Child cases moved up to 9.5% of the cumulative cases

Week ending August 27

+ 44,000 pediatric cases

Cumulative number of infected children, 476,000
NYC, 3.2%
New Jersey, 3.4%
Florida, 5.8%
Connecticut, 5.9%
Massachusetts, 6.7%
Minnesota, 15.1%
New Mexico, 15.7%
Alaska, 15.9%
North Dakota,16.0%
Tennessee, 17.1%
Wyoming,18.3%

Children, hospitalizations

1.7% of cumulative number for all ages

Hawaii, 0.6%

Arizona, 4.1%

Children, Mortality

Nationwide, 0.07% of all COVID-19 deaths

19 of the 43 states reporting age distributions have had no deaths yet

Deaths, 101 (August 27)

US trends

New York

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-pushes-ahead-with-more-reopenings-as-covid-19-cases-rise-in-u-s-midwest-idUKKBN25U2SI

Cases down

Progressive reopening

Midwest, cases increasing

Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota

20% + positive test results

Iowa, cases + 8,300 (last week), up 116%

Minnesota, cases up 27% last week

Indiana, cases up 35%

UK

Increasing cases

England, NHS Test and Trace, 20 August and 26 August

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing-and-tracing/nhs-test-and-trace-if-youve-been-in-contact-with-a-person-who-has-coronavirus/

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/914583/Test_and_Trace_Week13_V3.pdf

Cases, weekly + 6,732

Highest since May

Up 6% on week before

Contacts reached, down to 69.4% from 77.1%.

High cases, low deaths

(Dr. Andrew Bayliff)

‘First wave’

Most testing hospital based

Patients presenting with relatively severe symptoms

Self-selecting sample

Biased towards older patients with comorbidities

Most positive cases never tested, therefore undiagnosed

Many asymptomatic and mild cases

‘Current wave’

Much more testing

Many via track and trace

Therefore picking up a representative sample of the total infected population

Mortality rates for recent ‘cases’ will be biased more towards the statistically true outcomes

i.e. the true IFR

Testing rate is more than x100 from the early weeks

‘chalk and cheese’

‘apples and oranges”

Q and A

Will this vaccine change my DNA?
Contact tracing apps can sharply reduce the spread of Covid-19 even when only a few people use them

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.29.20184135v1.full.pdf

Non-pharmaceutical interventions

Google and Oxford University

An app used by 15% of the population

Together with a well-staffed contact-tracing workforce

Can lead to a 15% drop in infections

And an 11% drop in deaths

Google and Apple.

Bluetooth signals

Anonymously notifies a person if someone they met contracts Covid-19

Past few weeks

Six US states

Two dozen countries

No major hitches

Thailand
First locally transmitted case in 100 days
Prison inmate was diagnosed
Dozens of contacts are now being tested
Arrested for drug offences on 26 August

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Видео Update, Child cases and lowering fatality rates канала Dr. John Campbell