Pandemic Science, Reducing death rates

Estimating the infection fatality ratio in England, (21 August, CEBM)

https://www.cebm.net/oxford-covid-19-evidence-service/

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/estimating-the-infection-fatality-ratio-in-england/

IFR falling over time

ONS, IFR, as of 4 August, 0.49%

(95% Credible interval, 0.36% to 0.67%)

MRC, IFR, as of 28 July, 0.30%

(MRC Credible interval. 0.22% to 0.4%)

23rd June, IFR, 0.69%

Charts

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-uk-hospital-admissions/

CDC deaths and comorbidities

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR2-muRM3tB3uBdbTrmKwH1NdaBx6PpZo2kxotNwkUXlnbZXCwSRP2OmqsI

Data to 22 August

Deaths = 161, 392

For 6% of the deaths

COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned

For deaths with comorbidities, 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death

Respiratory

Influenza and pneumonia 68, 004

Chronic lower respiratory 13, 780

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, 21, 899

Respiratory failure, 54, 803

Respiratory arrest, 3, 282

Cardiovascular

Hypertension, 35, 272

Ischaemic heart disease, 18, 103

Cardiac arrythmia, 9, 821

Heart failure, 10, 562

Cerebrovascular disease, 7, 653

Metabolic
Sepsis, 14, 053

Malignancy 7, 415

Diabetes, 25, 936

Obesity, 5, 614

Alzheimers 5, 608

Other dementia, 18, 487

Renal failure, 13, 693

Others

Injury or poisoning, 5, 133

Others, 77, 990

Care homes in England had greatest increase in excess deaths at height of the COVID-19 pandemic (Stirling, 30 August)

https://www.stir.ac.uk/news/2020/august-2020-news/care-homes-in-england-had-greatest-increase-in-excess-deaths-at-height-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Of all deaths registered as COVID-19 related in the UK

17,127 (31%) occurred within care homes

At least 21,775 (40%) were care home residents

Scotland

Highest proportion of care homes affected

Highest proportion of care home deaths attributed to COVID

Excess deaths in care homes

England, 79%

Wales, 66%

Scotland, 62%

NI, 46%

Professor David Bell

It will never be possible to unequivocally assign care home deaths during the pandemic to COVID-19 or other causes

Excess deaths data is next best thing

Smoking deaths

7, 000, 000 deaths per year

COVID deaths, 2020, 846, 971

England, 2017, 14.4% smokers

COVID deaths, 2020

Deaths, 41, 586 (UK) or 52, 091 (England and Wales, weeks 1 - 33)

Smoking deaths, 77, 800

16% of all deaths

Australia, 2015, 11.6% smokers

COVID deaths 652

Smoking deaths, 21, 000

12.5% of all deaths
US, 2018, 13.7% smokers

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm
COVID deaths, 183, 068
Smoking, 480, 000 deaths per year
41,000 passive
16, 000, 000 living with a disease caused by smoking

Видео Pandemic Science, Reducing death rates канала Dr. John Campbell