Coronavirus, Death Rates Plummet

UK
Symptom tracker
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/incidence-update-21-aug

Over 4 million contributors

1,265 new cases per day

18, 933 symptomatic cases today

Data is consistent with the ONS household survey

ONS numbers slightly higher due to inclusion of asymptomatics

Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases

Down from last week

Localised outbreaks not spreading

Community spread continues

Lower death rates

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/23/why-do-covid-fatalities-remain-low-when-infection-numbers-are-rising

Europe, cases rising

Severe complications and deaths remain relatively low

UK ventilated patients, 3,000 down to 70

Infection fatality rate

Is the severity of the disease decreasing a bit?

U Pittsburgh MC doctor says COVID-19 has become ‘less prevalent’ and isn’t making people as sick

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid-19-has-become-less-prevalent-and-less-severe.html

Dr. Donald Yealy

All signs that we have available right now show that this virus is less prevalent than it was weeks ago

Among people who test positive, the total amount of the virus the patient has is much less than in the earlier stages of the pandemic

We see all of this as evidence that COVID-19 cases are less severe than when this first started

Virus mutating?

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/is-the-new-coronavirus-getting-weaker-what-to-know

Triad of infectious disease, viral evolution

Study concluded that most mutations were neutral and did not affect viral lethality

Factors

Testing at an earlier stage of the illness

Social distancing, face coverings, hand and surface hygiene

Infection with lower viral load

Summer humidity reducing infection

Medical interventions more successful

Dexamethasone

Heparin

Becoming a disease of younger people

However

US, recent spike, 20s and 30s

Followed by a spike in older people

This could happen in UK and Europe in coming few weeks

US

Food and Drug Administration, emergency authorisation of convalescent plasma

Temporary emergency use authorization

https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/investigational-new-drug-ind-or-device-exemption-ide-process-cber/recommendations-investigational-covid-19-convalescent-plasma

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53884710

Health care providers or acute care facilities, obtain COVID-19 convalescent plasma from an FDA-registered blood establishment

20,000 patients reviewed, safe

Convalescent plasma or hyperimmune immunoglobulin for people with COVID‐19: a living systematic review

https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013600.pub2/full

We are very uncertain whether convalescent plasma;

has any effect on all‐cause mortality at hospital discharge

prolongs time to death

has any effect on improvement of clinical symptoms at seven days

Safety

There is only very low‐certainty evidence for safety of convalescent plasma for COVID‐19
Allergic or respiratory problems
Transfusion‐associated dyspnoea
Transfusion‐related acute lung injury

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Видео Coronavirus, Death Rates Plummet канала Dr. John Campbell