Could a Samurai with Katana Beat a Musketeer with Rapier?

This is a "what if" duel that was historically possible, and it's essentially a match of polar opposites.

The rapier has superior reach and quick, agile thrusts, while the katana delivers more powerful cuts and has the upper hand at close distance. Overall quite a high-risk fight.. assuming an unarmored duel. A battlefield scenario or an unexpected self-defense encounter on the street would be a different story.

What are the strengths and weaknesses of each, and what would happen if the fighters swapped swords? Lots to cover, so let's delve right in!

The reproductions shown here:

Shirasaya katana by Hanwei
https://www.kultofathena.com/product/hanwei-bamboo-stick-katana/?koa=259

Tizona - 17th century Spanish cup-hilt rapier by LK Chen
https://www.kultofathena.com/product/lk-chen-tizona-17th-century-spanish-cup-hilt-rapier/?koa=259

Saxony German rapier by LK Chen
https://www.kultofathena.com/product/lk-chen-saxony-german-rapier/?koa=259

Munich Town Guard sword by LK Chen
https://www.kultofathena.com/product/lk-chen-munich-town-guard-sword/?koa=259
Video credits:

How Would a Katana Swordmaster Fight with a Rapier? by @letsasksekisensei
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMTs3LQKtNw

Katana vs Rapier Sparring - Burak vs Nick by @AcademyofHistoricalFencing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2A_NISUX-w
Related videos:

Can a Rapier Defeat Mail Armor? - Let's Test and Find Out!
https://youtu.be/L_EGoLvsaeY

Why Some Rapiers are "Too" Flexible... (Are They?)
https://youtu.be/mNZIj_r696Q

The Most Expensive Sword I've Ever Reviewed!
https://youtu.be/M_n6fLHWnFo

Katana VS Longsword... The Truth Ain't so Sad!
https://youtu.be/5ZTGZ7X0BTw

Stabby Time! - Straight vs. Curved Swords on Ballistic Gel
https://youtu.be/jBZ9Y1KSkos
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*** Music credits ***
Outro:
"Highland Storm" by The Slanted Room Records
https://theslantedroom.github.io/steve.yee/
Used with artist's permission
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Видео Could a Samurai with Katana Beat a Musketeer with Rapier? канала Skallagrim