Can Trump Still Win? 2016 vs 2020 Election Polling | Trump vs Biden | QT Politics

With the 2020 Election just days away, things are looking very promising for presidential hopeful Joe Biden.

The 270 to Win Consensus Map gives Joe Biden 290 electoral votes with just Safe, Likely, and Leans, meaning he wouldn't have to win a single toss up in order to secure the presidency.

The Real Clear Politics No-Toss-Ups map gives Biden a massive lead in the electoral vote count, 345 to 193.

FiveThirtyEight gives Biden odds of 89 out of a 100 to win the election, with just 11 in 100 odds for Donald Trump. But they add this warning:

“Don't count the underdog out! Upset wins are surprising but not impossible.”

Indeed, President Donald Trump has had a long history of upset wins. Despite strong polling throughout the 2016 Republican primary, Trump was often laughed off as a joke candidate at the beginning of that contest. Democrats were often delighted about his victory, since it meant Hilary Clinton would have an easy time defeating him.

On the day of the election, Huffington Post projected less than a 2% shot for Donald Trump, with Electoral College forecast of 323 for the former First Lady.

Huffington Post, of course, was not alone. One of the most accurate predictions prior to that presidential election came from FiveThirtyEight, who gave Clinton a 71.4 percent shot of winning the white house.

Those were strong odds for Clinton in an election where she lost. Still, FiveThirtyEight is giving much stronger odds for Biden this time around. And, with good reason.

In the national polls, Biden isn't just beating Trump by a wide margin, his lead over Trump is more than five percentage points higher than Clinton's lead at this point in the race back in 2016. This is true not just on the national level, but also in the battleground states that could make or break the race. In these states, Biden is narrowly outpolling Clinton's 2016 numbers, according to RCP's analyses. And mind you, in the 2016 election, Clinton lost by some razor thin margins. As one Vanity Fair headline put it,

“You could fit all the voters who cost Clinton the election in a mid-sized football stadium.”

So is Biden all but guaranteed a sweeping victory on Tuesday, or could Trump pull off another election day miracle?

Could that happen?
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Question Time features video essays about politics, history and culture, with a particular focus on the United States of America. Topics are inspired by events and trends in news and current affairs, and attempt to provide context for a robust discussion in the comments section. All opinions presented in videos are my own, but yours matter, too. Your thoughts are highly valued, even when you don't agree. At the heart of every vibrant democracy are ordinary people, engaged in debate over policy and values.

Sources:
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/12/hillary-clinton-margin-loss-votes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-national-polls-2020-vs-2016/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

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