Jobs at Risk: The Human Cost of the U.S.-China Economic Clash

Jobs at Risk: The Human Cost of the U.S.-China Economic Clash

The U.S.-China trade war’s impact on ordinary Chinese citizens is profound, extending beyond macroeconomic debates. Exports to the U.S., officially 2.78% of GDP, are understated due to transshipment trade, with actual volumes likely between $700 billion and $1 trillion. This trade supports 30-60 million jobs, amplified by a multiplier effect where one export job creates 1.5-1.7 additional roles. A halt in U.S. exports could lead to 6.3-12.6% urban job losses, exacerbating youth unemployment amid 12.22 million graduates in 2025. Southeast coastal regions face intensified impacts, potentially triggering reverse urbanization and rising crime. While immediate effects hit U.S. consumers, China’s businesses delay unemployment through transshipment or alternative markets. Campaign-style policies, like zero-COVID, risk worsening outcomes, potentially surpassing trade war damages through rigid, centralized measures.

0:00 Intro
0:43 The Looming Threat of Job Losses
1:22 Misjudging the Economic Impact
2:31 The Hidden Scale of Transshipment Trade
4:08 The Multiplier Effect on Jobs
6:56 Urban vs. Rural Employment Realities
9:37 Coastal Crisis and Reverse Urbanization
11:13 A Slow-Burning Economic Fallout
15:06 The Peril of Campaign-Style Policies
16:01 The Rigidity of Centralized Control
16:35 Envisioning a New Campaign Nightmare
17:54 The False Hope of CCP Salvation

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