Brexit: Ireland claims deal in two weeks! (4k)

According to Dublin, there will be an EU/UK trade deal agreed within two weeks. But reports this afternoon claim that could now be as little as one week.

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Now, just to get started with, one little snippet of news that seems to have passed most people by, is a recent Reuters report saying that the UK will be withdrawing from EU military missions as of the end of the year.

The report says that the UK has formally notified Brussels of its intention to cease participation in missions after the 31st of December 2020.

It seems that as non-members, we are not able to either lead or take part in such enterprises. So Spain and Italy have agreed to put more resources in to replace those of the UK.

So this must surely remove any requirement for the UK military and security arms to continue to be joined at the hip with those of the EU.

After all, if we can't operate with them, then why be forced to use the same kit and procurement procedures?

Unless there's some extra military treaty being written behind closed doors, as part of these Brexit negotiations that are due to move to Brussels tomorrow.

And on that, many are saying that the deafening silence emanating from the Brexit negotiations at present is a good sign—a good sign for a deal that is.

For example, the Foreign Affairs Minister of the Republic of Ireland, Simon Coveney, says that a trade deal is now 'likely'.

And because of the Brussels bureaucracy timings involved, there is talk that a deal would have to be agreed by this coming Tuesday. A bit of a tall order.

Anyway, speaking in an Irish Farmers webinar, Simon Coveney said that:

"We're likely to get a deal, but it won't be easy."

And he also said that there is a lot at stake over the next ten to fourteen days. And added:

"There's no such thing as a no-deal Brexit any more, what we're now fighting is a no-trade deal Brexit which from an agricultural perspective would be hugely disruptive on many, many levels.

"We've got to be ready for January the 1st. There's going to be no more extensions of time, no more transition periods. Time is up at the end of the year."

And he's got that bit right, and it's looking like the pressure is beginning to take its toll on the EU side.

For example, the financial services provider Allianz put together a report that says:

"A hard Brexit could cost the EU EUR33bn in annual exports."

And the report goes on to say:

"The odds for a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020 have considerably increased to 45%. While we do still expect a last-minute compromise, given the social, political and economic consequences of such an outcome on top of the continuing Covid-19 crisis in the UK and across Europe in general, a Hard Brexit could cost as much as EUR33bn in annual EU exports, with Germany (EUR8.2bn), the Netherlands (EUR4.8bn) and France (EUR3.6bn) hit the hardest."

And it equates these figures to an 11.2% drop in the volume of exports from Germany into the UK, a 10.5% drop for the Netherlands and 11% for France.

Now the report appears to base this on the tariffs that the UK will be imposing on imports from third countries - that is countries we do not have deals with. And without a Brexit trade deal that would obviously also include the EU.

Allianz says that inflation will rise to 5% plus in the UK for at least six months because those tariffs will have to be paid by the end purchasers - UK consumers.

But I'm not sure that the Allianz reports factors in any downward movement in EU manufacturers prices to help shift their gear into the UK.

And there's also any actions the government might take in order to address any adverse issues.

The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has announced today that he will be delivering the 2020 spending review on the 25th of November.

#Brexit

#BrexitTalks

#UKDefence

Видео Brexit: Ireland claims deal in two weeks! (4k) канала Jeff Taylor