Expert pollster: It's Andy Burnham's to lose now

Polling analyst Lord Hayward joins Matt Frei to make sense of a by-election without parallel: Makerfield.

Andy Burnham's route back to Westminster cleared another hurdle on Friday after Labour's ruling body permitted him to stand for candidate selection ahead of the Makerfield by-election.

Labour’s ruling body, the National Executive Committee (NEC), has permitted the Mayor of Greater Manchester to stand in the candidate selection process for the upcoming by-election, a party spokesman said.

It comes after Labour MP Josh Simons announced that he would stand down yesterday, and endorsed Mr Burnham's return to Parliament.

The decision by the NEC officially confirms that Burnham can now contest the seat in North West England after days of speculation touting him as a challenger to Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.

A Labour Party spokesperson said: "Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee has today given permission to Andy Burnham to stand in the candidate selection process in the forthcoming by-election for the Makerfield constituency."

It comes after the former health secretary, Wes Streeting, insisted Labour needs "our best players on the pitch" and "Andy Burnham is one of them" as he backed him to win the Makerfield by-election.

Taking to Twitter, Mr Simons announced that he was standing down so that Mr Burnham can “return to his home, fight to re-enter Parliament, and if elected, drive the change our country is crying out for”.

He said: This has not been an easy decision. This is my family’s home, where only a few weeks ago, doctors and nurses at Wigan Infirmary saved our newborn son’s life.

"But we all must make choices and in recent days I found myself with a difficult one: defend the status quo or step forward and act. I have made my choice."

Mr Burnham confirmed his wishes to stand in the by-election soon after, saying: "There is only so much that can be done from Greater Manchester.

"Much bigger change is needed at a national level if everyday life is to be made more affordable again."

He added: "After this week, we owe it to people to come back together as a Labour movement, giving the Prime Minister and the Government the space and stability they need as the by-election takes place."

If successful, Mr Burnham is widely expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the party leadership.

Applications for the selection process open today (Friday) and will close on Monday, the NEC has decided.

Mr Burnham’s previous bid to contest a by-election, in Gorton and Denton, was rejected by an NEC’s officers committee, which included Sir Keir.

Labour expects a stiff challenge from Reform UK in Makerfield, with Mr Simons securing a majority of just 5,399 over Nigel Farage’s party at the 2024 general election.

Since then, Labour’s polling collapse and Reform’s surge have seen their positions reverse.

This month’s local elections saw Reform win every council ward in the Makerfield constituency, securing around half the vote, while Labour won only a little more than a quarter.

But Mr Burnham could benefit from his strong personal following across the North West, where he enjoys a net favourability rating of 24% according to pollster Ipsos – considerably higher than any of the party leaders or the Labour Party itself.

The election could prove expensive, especially as a victory for Mr Burnham would trigger another by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty.

A by-election in Makerfield alone could cost the taxpayer up to £226,000, the most the area’s returning officer can claim from the Treasury to cover the cost of running the poll.

But the cost of a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester would run into the millions, with the 2024 mayoral election costing the taxpayer £4.7 million.

That contest would have to take place within 35 working days, effectively seven weeks, of Mr Burnham becoming an MP.

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