Friday update

ONS, W/E 26th June

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

Community prevalence

0.39% in England (1 in 260 people)

0.22% in Wales (1 in 450 people)

0.15% in Northern Ireland (1 in 670 people)

0.68% in Scotland (1 in 150 people)

Alpha and Delta in England

ONS and COVID-19 reinfections, (June 29th)

Defining second infection

A new positive test 90 days or more after an initial first positive test

A new positive test following four consecutive negative tests

Rare

Milder than initial infections

Rate of asymptomatics in first and second infections

Reinfected less likely to report symptoms

First infection
Asymptomatic 21.8%

Second infection
Asymptomatic 57.1%

COVID-19 Infection Survey

The strength of an infection is measured by a cycle threshold (Ct) value.

Positive results with a low Ct value (30 or less)
Episodes of infection with a higher viral load
More likely to be ill
More infectious

Positive results with a high Ct value (30 or more)
Indicate a lower viral load
Less likely to be ill
Less infectious

Initial infections
Most people, low Ct value (higher viral load)

Reinfections
High Ct value (lower viral load)

CT values

Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Viral Load on Risk of Intubation and Mortality Among Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Clinical Infectious Diseases)

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa851/5865363

n = 678 hospitalized patients

CT value of 25 or less (high viral load)
Mortality, 35%

CT value of 25 to 30 (medium viral load)
Mortality, 17.7%

CT value above 30 (low viral load)
Mortality, 6.2%

US

Cases up 9.1% in past 7 days

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Of which 25% delta

Variants of interest
Variants of concern
Variants of high consequence

Adults with at least one dose of vaccine

Alabama, 50%

Wyoming, 50%

Virgin Islands, 49%

Louisiana, 48%

Mississippi, 46%

1,000 worst counties, 30% of adults with one dose or less

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/delta-delta-variants-everything-need-know-rcna1281

Europe

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57676408

Decline in cases over the past 10 weeks

Hans Kluge, WHO Europe

new wave in the WHO European region unless we remain disciplined

mixing, travel, easing restrictions

Spain

Steep rise in 20s

Russia

Deaths, + 672

UK

Cases, + 26,068 + 27,125 (highest since 29th January)

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Freedom day, too simplistic

David Nabarro

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/coronavirus-news-live-covid-vaccine-b1875209.html

We do have to be prepared for the inevitability that viruses will continue to be a problem for us

We’re going to have to really seriously contemplate continuing to practice some degree of physical distancing, some degree of mask wearing, some degree of hygiene,

some degree of protecting those who are most at risk, as long as there are these nasty viruses around, whether or not we’re vaccinated

It makes people very angry because they want to be able to stop being careful but it’s my advice,

and it’s just based on studying these things over the years, is that it is not a cool thing just to ditch our preventative measures on a particular date because we hope that’s going to be associated with less risk - the risks are going to stay

UK Vaccine boosters in Autumn

All adults aged 50 and over

NHS and care staff

Anyone who qualifies for a flu jab

Prof Anthony Harnden, Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation

we are worried about people who have had their vaccinations earlier on

We want to make sure they have a booster in time for the winter

We do know from other vaccines that immunity wanes quicker in older people than younger people

(Russia seems to be going for annual boosters)

Uganda

Population, 45 million

https://www.dw.com/en/uganda-president-museveni-tightens-covid-lockdown-as-cases-soar/a-58037127

President Yoweri Museveni, Friday public holiday for the nation to pray

Cases, + 20,000

Two million infections, increased holiday travel and Delta

Deaths, + 126 (most not recorded, highest so far)

42-day lockdown

Restrictions on movement

Roadblocks at district borders

COVID relief funds, mismanaged last year

Kampala

Lack of beds, oxygen, oxygen equipment, PPE, gloves, ambulances

Medical fees

Uganda's private hospitals, cash down payments of $3,000

AstraZeneca, 834,721 doses since March

Africa, 1.3 billion people, 18% of the world's population, 2% of vaccine doses

Indonesia

Population, 270 milliion

Java and Bali, 2 weeks

Limited testing outside Jakarta

Видео Friday update канала Dr. John Campbell