The Coastal Recession: America's Job Losses Concentrated in Five Cities

This isn't the "United States Recession". It's the Coastal Recession.

Job losses across the United States are concentrated in five main cities: New York, Boston, Miami, Orlando, and Las Vegas. The combination of the COVID pandemic and recession have resulted in astronomical job losses of 10%+ in these cities over the last nine months.

Meanwhile, markets like Oklahoma City, Salt Lake City, Columbus, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis have barely felt a blip. Job losses in these areas are only hovering around 1%.

If that seems like a large difference - you're right, it is. America hasn't experienced this level of regional economic inequality in decades. Much of Flyover Country is sitting in decent economic shape while Coastal Markets are hemorrhaging jobs.

These fundamental economic differences will eventually impact real estate in these cities, especially now that fiscal stimulus is abating. That means that the job losses impacting markets like New York, Boston, and Las Vegas will turn into real estate losses. Think lower occupancies, lower rent growth, and lower values.

The Midwest and Flyover markets of Oklahoma City, Columbus, and Cincinnati will likely benefit, absorbing the jobs and migration that flee the Coast.

Real estate investors should take note!

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