2023 Recession just hit REALTORS

Realtors are quitting across the US Housing Market. A sign that the 2023 Housing Downturn and Recession is going to get even worse.

Data from the National Association of Realtors shows that the growth in realtors has officially gone negative in 2023. Similar to what occurred at the beginning of the previous housing downturn and recession in 2007.

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Why are realtors quitting? Simple: because home prices are going down. Historical data shows a very tight relationship between home price growth and realtor growth. And now that prices are now going down YoY due to the recession and higher mortgage rates, realtors are quitting.

Things are especially bad in cities like San Francisco, Oakland, Los Angeles, and Sacramento - where home prices have gone down the most. Realtors in these markets are earning 40-50% fewer commissions this year compared to last.

Declining commissions will likely continue to be a problem for realtors due to higher mortgage rates. Which just hit 7%. Higher mortgage rates will likely lead to a further decline home sales and mortgage applications. And further prices Americans out of the housing market.

Because right now the cost to buy is at a record $2,700/month inclusive of mortgage interest, taxes, insurance, and maintenance. Compared to a median cost to rent of $1,850/month. So long as that gap between buying and renting exists, then we are unlikely to see a rebound in homebuyer demand in the US Housing Market.

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