The Coming Housing Crisis | Updated.

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⚠️⚠️⚠️#RealEstate #Crisis #Rent ⚠️⚠️⚠️

We just heard that new bank stress tests are being instituted on banks - these are two tests that we will know the answers to at the end of the year will follow these criteria. **2 severe recessions tests** the banks will be tested on. 12.5% unemployment going down to 7.5% and another recession with a spike of unemployment to 11 but going down to 9% -- they’ll also include a 30% stock market decline and 26% Real Estate market decline. These new tests are going to weigh on the real estate market as banks set aside more reserves and tighten lending more. Now the tests are designs to help prevent a catastrophe and financial crisis, but these tests definitely should make us think about what we would do if that actually. Happened: think about that - a 30% stock decline and 26% real estate decline. yikes. Anyway, lets’ hit the other news. First on deck: The strength in home building just started slowing - a signal some say is the first crack in housing. #1: US homebuilding fell in august after 3 months of straight up - the commerce department said today that housing starts fell 5.1% for august and July’s data revised lower as well. Starts actually dropped a good chunk more than expected. Reuters surveyed economists and did expect a 1.2% decline - but the 5.1% decline was a substantial miss. Looking deeper at this data, there is no lack of demand so that’s good, rates are lower than they’ve been before - they’re at an average of 2.86% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage right now - which is great -- it is true that some lenders are getting delayed with their loans due to high demand and lumber prices have skyrocketed. But the rate of this pull back was a bit more pronounced - we are coming of 3 months of gains but a 5.1% decline wasn’t expected. something to remember as well about homebuilders is they’re usually 2 years out from permit to sold - so homebuilders are making bets on the market for 2 years out at a time.

2nd Issue on Deck Last week I reported that we had a decline that as of September 6th, only 76.4% of apartment households made full or partial rent payments by September 6th. That was a 4.8% decline from August and the worst month we’ve seen during the pandemic. Well the data for September 13th is out. By the second week in September, only 86.2% of households have made full or partial rent payments - this is the lowest reading we’ve had in this pandemic.

3rd issue on deck: We still don’t have rental assistance. The problem solver’s caucus has proposed up to $25 billion in rental assistance - which would dramatically help prevent concerns of an eviction crisis, and while stimulus negotiations have turned optimistic, we still don’t have a guarantee that we’re not going to see an eviction crisis.

4th issue: WSJ today reported that about 1 million American homeowners have fallen through the safety net of mortgage forbearance setup earlier this year via the Cares Act. Remember if you have a federally backed mortgage, you’ve been able to take out forbearance in most cases for up to 1 year.

**On good news:** so far is that eviction filings in the second week of September are down in 16 cities surveyed. These same cities were up the first week of September, but the new CDC’s eviction ban seems to be helping.

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Видео The Coming Housing Crisis | Updated. канала Meet Kevin