Brexit deal by mid-November?!

We've now gone from no deal, to let's talk a bit more, to we might have a deal by mid-November.

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The Brexit roller coaster does seem endless, doesn't it? And getting bumpier by the day.

Just ten days ago Brexiteers were celebrating that Boris had called no-deal Brexit! Unless there was a fundamental shift on the EU side.

But after a couple of throwaway lines from Brussels about 'compromise', we're now shackled to the negotiating table once again.

And the mutterings are that if we stick at it, there might be a deal by mid-November.

But the warnings are all still there about the vast chasm between the two negotiating positions.

How many times have the terms fisheries, level playing field, governance and state aid been bandied about?

It seems to me that the two sides are about a hundred miles apart, but every time each side move an inch closer, it's being hailed as some sort of monumental milestone.

And as a result, it looks like we're now going to have to wait until mid-November before we get a decision.

And, I would bet the decision would be ... we need to talk more and come to a deal by Christmas.

Now I know it's being claimed that this isn't the case, but the only message this puts out now from Downing Street is that Boris won't allow a no-deal.

That means Brussels thinks it can sit back and wait for the big cave in.

As I said yesterday, the longer this prevarication continues, the more relaxed Brussels will get.

The more times a potential buyer views the same house, the more the estate agent knows they're on the hook. So, the less chance of the buyer beating the price down.

And that seems to me to be where we are.

A UK government that keeps going back to Brussels to look at that same deal.

One person showing optimism is the Irish deputy Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, who RTE yesterday that:

"I am confident there will be a deal. It's by no means guaranteed, but I think on the balance of probabilities it will be possible to agree a free-trade agreement with the UK."

The trouble is that for the EU27 a so-called 'free trade deal' with the UK consists of the UK having to pay for it by handing over our fish, Northern Ireland and control over our laws and future.

And I'm sure that Varadkar is hoping for something along those very lines.

But we are getting some very mixed messages out of France at the moment.

One moment the French President, Emmanuel Macron is sticking steadfastly to his fishing red-lines of total access to UK Waters. And the next we have his Europe Minister, Clement Beaune, saying that this is all just France playing the Brexit bad-cop.

"The Europeans need to be really tough. The President has always been on the front line. We have always been accused of being, to use the English phrase, 'the bad cop." He told Radio J.

"We take full responsibility for that. Because Brexit is an economic and political challenge. If you think you can have your cake and eat it, Europe is meaningless.

"The Europeans need to learn to rediscover the concept of the balance of power, including with its friends and partners, including with the UK."

But he is another who believes that a deal could be struck in the next two to three weeks. Although again I think the French envisage the EU having control over a colonised UK.

There is also talk that the French and Spanish fishing communities could band together to blockade EU ports to prevent UK fish being imported into the single market.

This talk stems from worries by the UK fishing community that retaliatory hold-ups at ports would make their trade with EU countries impossible.

For example, the managing director of Loch Fyne Seafarms, Jamie McMillan, told the Express:

"It's on a knife-edge - it could go either way.

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Видео Brexit deal by mid-November?! канала Jeff Taylor