US Macroeconomic Analysis | Is Powell Cutting The Rate In December FOMC Meeting? (November 14, 2025)

Markets are digesting a sharp post–shutdown rally while repricing the odds of a December Fed rate cut. In this video I walk through CPI, unemployment and job-cut data, why inflation hovering near 3% matters so much for the Fed, and what it all means for SPY, the Dow and names like Nvidia heading into earnings. We’ll also look at sector rotation, prediction markets around the US government shutdown, and the risk that rising unemployment becomes the real catalyst for the next move in rates.
• Latest CPI: prior print at 3.0% vs 3.1% consensus and why a 3.0–3.1% October/November range could still justify rate cuts.
• Inflation drivers: transportation and housing/shelter cooling, with national median rents rolling over and easing pressure on core inflation.
• Labour market: unemployment at 4.3% in August, expectations for 4.4–4.5%, and why the Fed is watching job losses more than headline growth.
• Job cuts: October’s 153k announced job cuts (up 183% sequentially, highest since 2020) and what mega-cap layoffs at firms like Amazon signal for demand.
• Market reaction: SPY up ~40–41% from the April lows despite pessimistic consumer sentiment, plus how prediction markets and CME FedWatch are pricing December cuts (~50% odds).
• Positioning: sector map rotation into defensives, semiconductors and tech weakness, and Nvidia’s key support level into next week’s earnings as a potential volatility trigger.
Chapters
00:00 Intro, shutdown and December rate cut odds
01:20 White House comments, PolyMarket and sentiment
03:58 Data checklist: payrolls, unemployment and CPI
04:28 CPI review, September print and 3% inflation base case
07:18 October CPI scenarios and Fed reaction
10:25 SPY rally vs University of Michigan sentiment
12:49 Inflation drivers: transportation, shelter and rents
16:59 Unemployment trends and Fed focus on the labour market
18:22 Challenger report: 153k job cuts and mega-cap layoffs
20:46 How SPY traded after the job-cut shock
23:35 Fed futures, unemployment at 4.4–4.5% and cut odds
25:30 Nvidia technicals and earnings risk at major support
27:09 Sector map, defensives vs tech and market breadth
28:50 What I’m watching next
Not financial advice.
#CPI #Fed #SPY #Nvidia #Unemployment #Inflation

Видео US Macroeconomic Analysis | Is Powell Cutting The Rate In December FOMC Meeting? (November 14, 2025) канала Fat Tails Capital