Midyear Market Recap: Inflation, Elections, and What It Means for Your Retirement

Halfway through 2026 and it has been a year!

Josh and Dave sit down for their midyear check in, covering everything from the war in Iran and its impact on oil prices, to a brand new Fed chair, to the SpaceX IPO, to what midterm elections really do to the stock market.

Plus, plenty of stories about summer concerts, the Field of Dreams, and why Dave will never live down his Bruegger's Bagels era.

*Here is what we cover this episode:*

We're up over 9%in the S&P 500 year to date, even with a long list of headlines that would make anyone nervous. Josh walks through why the market has held up despite a war in Iran, a closed Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and inflation numbers ticking back up to 4.2%. We talk about what that means for the Fed and interest rates going forward, and why Bank of America is now predicting rate increases instead of cuts.

We also dig into the SpaceX IPO and what it says about where market leadership is headed next. The last few years were dominated by a handful of giant tech names. Now we're starting to see the companies that support them step into the spotlight, and there is a case for who benefits next as AI keeps rolling out across other industries.

With midterm elections coming up in November, we look at decades of market data to answer a simple question: does it actually matter who controls Congress? The numbers might surprise you, and they say a lot about staying level headed no matter what the headlines are telling you to feel.

We close things out with a look at investing during all time highs, plus our favorite chart of the year (you will know it when you see it) on asset allocation and why chasing last year's winner is rarely the move.

As always, none of this is specific advice. Everything here is for informational purposes only. If you want to talk about your own situation, we would love to hear from you.

*Timestamps so you can jump around*
00:00 - Josh and Dave catch up (and give Brian grief for being late)
01:17 - Summer concerts, the World Cup, and asking AI to explain offsides
05:49 - Field of Dreams tournament and the seasons of life
08:03 - What we're actually talking about today (and our mission statement)
09:54 - The S&P is up 9%. Here's why that surprises people
10:24 - Venezuela, Iran, and a year of wild headlines
12:34 - How the Strait of Hormuz closure hits your grocery bill
14:07 - A new Fed chair and why rate cuts might turn into rate hikes
15:03 - SpaceX goes public and what it means for market leadership
17:40 - Dave's Bruegger's Bagels confession
18:28 - What midterm elections really do to the market
23:35 - Should you invest when the market hits an all time high
24:36 - Our favorite chart: picking the best asset class every year
25:37 - Why this is a good time for a portfolio check in
27:27 - Like, subscribe, and cheers to the second half of the year

*About Java with Josh*
Java with Josh is a monthly live YouTube show hosted by Josh Bretl, CPA and Dave Schmidt. Friends for more than 30 years, they simplify complex financial topics with relatable stories and practical guidance designed specifically for retirees and those nearing retirement.

*Who is Wellment Financial?*
We are tax-focused retirement strategists and partners, delivering a smart, simple plan so you can spend and live with confidence, freedom, and comfort. Our purpose is to help make retirement the best part of your life. With a supportive and authentic team by your side, we turn financial complexity into a clear path, freeing you to focus on what truly matters most.

*Standard disclaimer*
Wellment Financial is a registered investment advisor located in Elmhurst, Illinois. Information and opinions contained in this video have been arrived at by Wellment advisors. All information herein is for informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. It does not constitute an offer, a solicitation or recommendation to purchase any security. Wellment is not providing legal, tax, accounting, or financial planning advice in this video. These views are as of the date of this publication and are subject to change.

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