Oxford Mathematician explains Exponential Growth for COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

University of Oxford Mathematician Dr Tom Crawford explains exponential growth in the context of an epidemic such as that for COVID-19/Coronavirus. Beginning with one primary infection we see how the number of cases increases dramatically over a period of only 30 days to more than one thousand. All sources are referenced below.

The value of the reproductive number R0 = 3 is taken from current World Health Organisation estimates. Please see here for more information: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/27/2/taaa021/5735319

The data for the UK population is from 2018 and is sourced from Statista here: https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

The data for the COVID-19/Coronavirus death rate is from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Please see here for more information: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-countries-2020-3?r=US&IR=T#like-other-viruses-covid-19-doesnt-affect-all-patients-equally-2

Produced by Dr Tom Crawford at the University of Oxford.

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