True Brexit takes True Grit!

The truth of it is, that to get a true clean Brexit was always only going to be achieved through True Grit.

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According to analysis by Electoral Calculus the Conservative Party is on course for a very healthy majority indeed, which would enable Boris Johnson to push virtually any deal through parliament that he agrees with Brussels.

This follows on from the YouGov data I shared with you in my video last night, where Labour was shown to be on course for a real drubbing on December the 12th.

As you can see from this graph showing the Electoral calculus data, the Conservative Party could be on course to take 38.2% of the vote, which would give Boris Johnson 373 seats, with Labour in a distant second place on 27.2% of the vote and just 182 seats.

Overall this could give the PM a 96 seat majority to play with, a far cry from the position his predecessor found herself in when the 2017 General Election dust had settled over the rubble of her ambitions.

But the big news from this for the Brexiteers is that The Brexit Party headed up by former UKIP leader Nigel Farage is expected to win no seats at all.

That is despite the prediction that Farage's party could take 10.2% of the vote.

That means that pollsters regard the Farage electoral threat as currently non-existent.

So, despite only having six weeks and a Christmas recess in the way between election day and Brexit Day, with this result the PM could well force the currently agreed Brexit treaty through both houses of parliament and have all the relevant statutes in place for the new 31st of January Exit day date.

Now, as you well know there have been some serious issues about this Boris treaty raised by the Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, which throws severe doubt on that offering being the real deal Brexit.

So, unless Team Boris can very clearly refute to doubters every one of Farage's claims, then The Brexit Party now has no real choice other than to show True Grit and go for broke.

Now, many will point to research by those such as professor Matthew Goodwin writing in Brexit Central that shows that it would only take a six point swing to take any Boris Johnson government out of a comfortable majority into the horrors of another hung parliament.

And that could be caused by a combination of an upturn in Labour's fortunes coupled with the possibility that Farage might start to make inroads with his message.

But in his article professor Goodwin starts off from a less favourable position of Boris winning 357 seats giving him a majority of 64, not the 96 that Electoral Calculus is showing. And also bear in mind, that the evidence now is that Corbyn's crowd is dropping in the polls day by day.

The assumption though seems to be that The Brexit Party will be drawing the sting out of the Tory vote, so handing more electoral oomph to the opposition.

But if Farage is right and he is more likely to sap the opposition vote, then it may well bolster the Tory position.

And if Farage stuck to his guns, then at least he and his Brexit Party candidates will have fought for what they believe in.

But the Sun reports that Farage is coming under increasing pressure from his donors and even some of his own candidates to stand his team down and just back the Tory party.

And as I say, the main argument at present seems to be the old one of, if you don't vote Blue you'll get a Red Marxist in power, or some rag-tag bunch of pro-EU lefties.

But if the choice we're really being offered is between a full blown Red Marxist who will end up keeping us in the EU or a tepid half baked or even non-existent Blue Brexit that could end up reeling us back into the bloc, then I fail to see what choice Farage really has here - other than to continue the quest that he has been on for over two decades.

#Brexit

#GeneralElection

#NigelFarage

Sources:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/10309528/nigel-farage-brexit-party-calls-to-stand-down/

https://brexitcentral.com/how-tory-voters-switching-to-the-brexit-party-could-deliver-another-hung-parliament/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10309358/labour-jeremy-corbyn-two-leaders/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/08/bad-boys-brexit-fall-nigel-farage-ditched-favour-tories/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-lib-dems-labour-remain-brexit-second-referendum-corbyn-a9195101.html

Видео True Brexit takes True Grit! канала Jeff Taylor