Brexit | Deal or No Deal?!

Our MPs will be voting on this new Brexit deal forged by Boris Johnson tomorrow. Which way would you vote though? Deal or no deal?

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Now what many people don't realise, is that there are two new documents involved in this overall agreement.

The first is the Withdrawal Agreement itself that dictates how we leave the EU and the second is a new Political Declaration document that sets out our future relationship with the EU.

Having read through the new amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement itself, all I can say is that, as far as I can see, it is the same Theresa May Withdrawal Agreement surrender treaty but with a change to the Irish border backstop and a reference to that new political declaration issued by the EU last night.

But there is one point that struck me. And that is that, as far as I can tell, the UK will still have to put in place UK domestic laws that permanently mirror six EU directives on equality and employment in Northern Ireland.

And it also looks to me like any taxes raised in Northern Ireland will rightly go to the UK Treasury.

Otherwise I just get the feeling that some backstop deck-chairs have been shifted about.

Now to the political declaration.

Without going through them both side by side it's very difficult to see what's changed - they look almost identical. But I found a couple.

One change in the new political declaration, is an added paragraph about the 'replacing' of the Irish border backstop.

But another amendment of note is that the old political declaration talked about a 'single customs territory' being formed - that to me means a permanent customs union between the EU and UK.

But the new political declaration has replaced that with the term 'free trade area', much more acceptable to Brexiteers.

But this is something that the Labour Party leadership will take issue with. Their policy is to be in a customs union with the EU.

It also looks like the requirement for a 'level playing field' with the EU has been removed. And that is another area with which the Labour leadership will not like at all.

There are also concerns over fisheries, where the new Political Declaration talks about cooperating:

"...on the development of measures for the conservation, rational management and regulation of fisheries, in a non- discriminatory manner." And some say this is code for continuing as we are with EU fishing vessel access to our waters.

And it has also been pointed out that within the Withdrawal Agreement itself is a clause that might prevent the UK taking military action in its own right, if that action conflicts or impedes EU foreign policy.

And a look at the Veterans for Britain Twitter feed shows they have concerns.

There will be many other changes in there that I haven't yet had time to pick up on yet.

Now, that ardent Brexiteer Tory MP and current Leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote a glowing report on the new agreement in a Brexit Central article.

And he says:

"At long last, the Brexit prize has fully manifested itself before us and what a great prize it is. We must seize it readily with both hands."

There may be many on both sides of the Brexit divide who would disagree with that assessment.

Because, what bothers me, is that Boris Johnson takes the much hated Theresa May treaty, makes the backstop look more agreeable and he's a big hero.

But the Diplomatic editor of the BBC, Mark Urban Tweeted:

"An insider from one of the EU institutions here told me today that after UK made its initial offer here 2 weeks ago, Michel Barnier told him, 'we will have to get them to move to a Northern Ireland only backstop, but convince them that's not what's happening'."

And the Guardian reports that:

"European media and commentators were unanimous in saying that the greatest and most humiliating concessions in the new Brexit accord concluded on Thursday had been made not by the EU, but by Boris Johnson."

So, my personal overall assessment is - 'No Deal'.

#Brexit

#WithdrawalAgreement

#DealOrNoDeal

Sources:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/revised_political_declaration.pdf

https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1184966246141513730

https://brexitcentral.com/boris-johnson-has-delivered-a-brexit-deal-that-eurosceptics-can-and-should-enthusiastically-support/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/the-arithmetic-is-merciless-european-newspapers-react-to-brexit-deal

Видео Brexit | Deal or No Deal?! канала Jeff Taylor