WEBINAR: Probabilistic Forecasting of Pharmaceutical Projects and Portfolios with @RISK

The nature of a drug development project is characterized by high attrition rates, large capital expenditures, and long timelines. This makes the valuation of such projects and companies a challenging task. Not all valuation methods can cope with these particularities. Some of the most commonly used valuation methods are risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) and decision trees.

Risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) or eNPV (expected NPV) is a method to value risky future cash flows. rNPV modifies the standard NPV calculation of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis by adjusting (multiplying) each cash flow by the estimated probability that it occurs (the estimated success rate). In the language of probability theory, the rNPV is the expected value. rNPV is the standard valuation method in the drug development industry, where sufficient data exists to estimate success rates for all R&D phases. We'll use @RISK to model these pharmaceutical industry scenarios.

Originally recorded by Fernando Hernández, Palisade Corporation, October 19th, 2018

Видео WEBINAR: Probabilistic Forecasting of Pharmaceutical Projects and Portfolios with @RISK канала Palisade