New Updates On MAYON—The Danger Is No Longer Just Ash — Pyroclastic Flows Are Moving Down Now!

On Wednesday, May 13, 2026, at 11:22 AM local time, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) observed the start of a lava-collapse pyroclastic density current at Mayon Volcano in Albay province, Bicol region, Philippines. The event ended at 11:37 AM — a fifteen-minute window — producing a plume that rose 4,000 meters above mean sea level and drifted southwest from the Mi-isi Gully, the same southwestern channel that produced the May 2 PDC eleven days earlier. Within ninety minutes, light ashfall arrived in six specific barangays of Legazpi City — Buyoan (Iraya section) at 1:02 PM, Matanag at 1:04, Mabinit at 1:16, Pawa at 1:30, Bigaa at 1:45, and Bogtong at 1:49 — a forty-seven-minute spread across one city, tracing the plume's drift line from the upper slope toward the coast. Camalig, Daraga, and Santo Domingo were also affected. As of Thursday, May 14, 2026, Mayon is on day 129 of a continuous eruption that began on January 6. Volcano Alert Level 3 remains in effect. PHIVOLCS Volcano Monitoring chief Antonia Bornas stated on May 13 that the newest lava flow in Mi-isi Gully, fed continuously by effusion from the crater since January 6, has "instead of growing, advancing, or lengthening, like what has been happening since 6 January 2026, started collapsing." That sentence describes a regime change. For 129 days the lava was advancing. It is now failing. The danger has stopped being about how far the lava can travel and has started being about what falls off the front of it. In the past 24 hours, PHIVOLCS recorded 35 volcanic earthquakes, 26 of which were tremor episodes lasting between 7 and 84 minutes, 350 rockfall events, seven pyroclastic density current signals, continued minor Strombolian activity at the summit crater, and continued short-lived lava fountaining. Lava continues to occupy three southwestern gullies: Basud at 3.8 kilometers, Bonga at 3.2 kilometers, and Mi-isi at 1.6 kilometers — the shortest of the three and the one that has been collapsing. A persistent 1,250-meter plume above the crater drifted west-northwest, west-southwest, and southwest under variable winds. Sulfur dioxide emissions averaged 1,295 tonnes per day on May 12, down from the March 6 peak of 7,633 tonnes per day but still well above background levels. Ground deformation data shows the volcanic edifice in short-term deflation while the northeastern flank shows inflation on shorter time scales — the volcano is contracting overall and expanding locally at the same time, a signal of internal pressure redistributing within the magma plumbing. The Philippine National Police has reinforced its border control points around the six-kilometer Permanent Danger Zone, which is calibrated for PDC runout based on Mayon's geological record, not for ashfall. A pyroclastic density current is not drifting ash. It is a hot, ground-hugging flow of volcanic gas, rock fragments, and ash, with internal temperatures between 200 and 700 degrees Celsius and speeds that can exceed 60 km/h on Mayon's gully gradients. Every collapse leaves fresh pyroclastic deposits in the Mi-isi Gully — loose, unconsolidated material that the next collapse will travel over more efficiently than the original lava that produced it. The path is becoming more efficient with each event. This is not a new catastrophic eruption. The alert level has not been raised. There is no caldera-collapse signal. There is no Level 4 escalation. But the volcano is not doing the same thing it has been doing for 129 days. It is doing something new. PHIVOLCS continues to warn residents in river channels and low-lying areas to remain alert for lahars during heavy and prolonged rainfall. The wet season is approaching. The mountain has not changed. The conditions have not changed. The communities at risk have not relocated.

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