HIMARS Simulation - Olenivka Prison, Ukraine

Simulation of the Oleniwka prison destroyed in Ukraine in 2022, performed with the Bullet Constraints Builder (BCB) structural simulation software for Blender. This collapse simulation was made based on the presently available data. The model was built true to scale based on photos of the destroyed building and material properties were estimated.

An explosion took place at the Russian-operated Olenivka prison in Ukraine in July 2022, killing 53 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and leaving 75 wounded. Both Ukrainian and Russian authorities accused each other of the attack on the prison. Ukrainian officials said that the Russians blew up the barrack in order to cover up crimes, while the Russians suggest that a HIMARS rocket was shot from Ukrainian territory.

To narrow down the cause of the destruction, this video shows simulation results for different scenarios based on the claims. The characteristic of the observable damage or debris pile compared to reality can often provide an indication of what likely happened.

Conclusion:
In all tests, the simulated destruction caused by the detonation of a typical HIMARS missile warhead would have far exceeded the damage to the building that can be observed in reality, which rules out the use of HIMARS in this case. Alternative causes of the explosion seem more likely, such as a smaller-sized improvised explosive device.
Credits:

Music:
Sergey Cheremisinov - She-Wolf In My Heart (CC BY)

Made with Blender + BCB + Fracture Modifier
https://blender.org
https://inachuslaurea.wordpress.com
https://github.com/KaiKostack/bullet-constraints-builder
https://blenderartists.org/forum/showthread.php?343637-Custom-Build-Blender-Fracture-Modifier

The "BCB" structural simulation software has been developed at the Laurea University of Applied Sciences, Finland. Written within the scope of EU Inachus FP7 Project (607522): Technological and Methodological Solutions for Integrated Wide Area Situation Awareness and Survivor Localisation to Support Search and Rescue (USaR) Teams

Видео HIMARS Simulation - Olenivka Prison, Ukraine канала Kostack Studio