How SIMPSON'S PARADOX explains weird COVID19 statistics

Simpson's Paradox is a statistical paradox and ecological fallacy that can sometimes give very strange results. Consider the case of CFR or Case Fatality Rates between countries. China has a higher survivability for coronavirus than Italy, however if you break it down by age group, every single age group such as people in their 50s have higher survivability in Italy than China, despite China being better overall. Why? We will explore how Simpson's Paradox and age demographics and explain the apparent contradiction. The issue is when using aggregate data vs compartmentalized data, and we will see how it is still possible to have good data and bad conclusions.

The data and observation of simpson's paradox being the issue came from this paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.07180

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This video was created by Dr. Trefor Bazett. I'm an Assistant Teaching Professor at the University of Victoria.

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Видео How SIMPSON'S PARADOX explains weird COVID19 statistics канала Dr. Trefor Bazett