AI superintelligence is coming Should we be worried？ ｜ GZERO World with Ian Bremmer in 12 min

The Imminent Arrival of Advanced AI:
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“Hello and welcome by 2027 in the last few years powerful new ai tools like transformed how we think about work and creativity even intelligence itself how different what our relationship with technology be just two years from now tech experts and policy makers are ringing alarm bells the powerful ai systems are coming down the pike faster than regulation or even our understanding can keep up with soon they warned the line between man and machine.”
This sets the stage for the urgency of the discussion, emphasizing the rapid pace of AI development.
Defining Artificial General Intelligence (AGI):
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“But large language models aren't yet intelligent they're highly skilled but narrow they're good at mimicking and matching patterns trained on tasks like writing code or generating images and text artificial general intelligence is very different these are machines that understand and learn and adapt like or better than humans”
This clarifies what AGI is and distinguishes it from current AI capabilities.
Timeline for AGI Development:
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“I would say something like 80% in the next you know 5 or 6 years something like that so like in the next 10 or 20 it gets to like 99% sure by the next 20 years or so but there's still like some chance that's all of this whole this whole thing fizzles out you know some crazy events that that is not at all what i expect i would say so”
This provides a concrete prediction for when AGI is expected, making the discussion more tangible.
The AI 2027 Report and Concerns:
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“Play pierre altogether my guest today daniel cockatiel is one of those people he's a former open ai employee and leader of the team behind ai 2027 a report that envisions are not so distant future where the us and china are locked in an ai arms race they ignore safety concerns and the software goes rogue sounds like science fiction but it's written by experts with direct knowledge of the research pipeline and that is exactly why it is so concerning how worried should we be what happens when machines cannot think of us is this the next great leap forward for the next geopolitical arms race”
This introduces the specific report being discussed and highlights the core concerns: an AI arms race and safety issues.
Risks of Misaligned AGI:
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“The ais end up continuing to be misaligned so the humans never truly figure out how to control them once they become smarter than humans and the end result is a world a couple years down the line that's totally run by super intelligent ais that actually don't care about humanity at all and that results in you know catastrophe for humanity”
This elaborates on the potential dangers of AGI that is not aligned with human values.
Potential Outcomes of AGI:
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“Best case scenario agi helps us solve climate change your cancer boost productivity and enter new golden age where innovation isn't limited. Buy us worst case agi decides that human beings are inefficient carbon-based error machines and logically concludes the easiest way to save the planet is to eliminate us”
This starkly contrasts the utopian and dystopian possibilities of AGI.
Lack of Preparedness in AI Companies:
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“The short answer is it doesn't seem like opening i or any other company is at all ready for what's coming and they don't seem inclined. After they become fully autonomous and smarter than we are and this is an unsolved technical problem we it's an open secret that we don't actually have a good plan for how we're going to do this”
This raises serious doubts about the responsibility and readiness of the companies developing AI.
The Urgency of Addressing the Problem:
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“Humanity in general mostly texas problems after they happen the problem of losing control of your army of super intelligence is is a problem that we can't afford to wait and see how it goes and then fix it afterwards”
This emphasizes that the risks of AI are not something we can afford to react to after they occur; proactive measures are necessary.
Need for Transparency:
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“Setting aside the safety concerns it's important for the public to know what goals what principles what values the company is trying to train the ais to have so that the public can be assured that there aren't any secret agendas or biases that the company is putting into their eyes and this is something that everyone should care about even if you're not worried about loss of control but it also helps with the loss of control because if you have the company write up a model spec that says here are intended here's what we're aiming for and”
This points towards a potential solution: increasing transparency in AI development and deployment.

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