ISW assessed Ukraine's possibilities to liberate its entire territory from Russians

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Ukraine's ability to liberate its entire territory in the long term depends on numerous future decisions in the West, the Kremlin and Kyiv. Any discussions that view the prospects of Ukrainian victory or defeat as predetermined outcomes ignore how all involved parties could dynamically change the war course in Ukraine.
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this.
Western media continue to report that some US officials began discussions on "freezing the lines" again as the new military aid package to Ukraine may be insufficient for Ukraine to regain all of its territory.
ISW noted that the current package supporters did not claim that it alone would allow Ukraine to liberate all the Russian-occupied territory and discussions of possible end states of the war are premature as President Joe Biden signed the bill for new aid just two days ago.
The US military aid is currently on its way to Ukraine and it will take several weeks to reach units in the combat zone and significantly impact the battlefield. In the coming weeks, Ukrainian forces will initially have to use US aid to stabilise the front line and stop Russian advances, particularly on the Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar fronts.
The scale and intensity of the projected Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024, which is likely to begin in June, is also still being determined. In addition, the Russian military command may actively assess and revise plans for their summer offensive efforts to account for engagements with better-equipped Ukrainian forces.
The Ukrainians must defend against Russian summer offensive actions and prevent Russian troops from making significant progress during the summer months before they can challenge the initiative and conduct a counteroffensive later in 2024 or 2025.
Ukrainian forces must also address the present issues with training new personnel, equipping the new units and restoring the old ones. The exact timeline of these efforts, which is likely to play a significant role in determining Ukraine's future counteroffensive operations, is still unclear.
ISW assessed that sufficient and consistent Western support will be crucial for Ukraine's future counteroffensive actions. However, the US and the West will have to react as Ukrainian military command determines the scale and direction of such operations and communicates Ukraine's needs to Western partners in the weeks and months leading up to future counteroffensive operations.

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