TSS S10 E1: Jeffrey Sherman, Sam Lau and Jeff Mayberry 2021 - Expectations and Risks 1-13-21
DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman and co-host Samuel Lau with Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry conduct a brief recap of markets in 2020, then they turn to market expectations for 2021, and market pricings as well as possible mis-pricings. They note that Wall Street consensus estimates 1.8% for inflation in 2021 and a year-end yield of 1.3% for the 10-year Treasury seem at odds with the average sell-side forecast of 4.3% real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the calendar year. Other topics discussed are the risks of the Federal Reserve mismanaging monetary policy amid the unknown path of the COVID-19 pandemic, limits on the utility of further asset purchases by the Fed, improvement and risks in the labor market, and the future of America’s damaged small-business sector. This episode of The Sherman Show was recorded Jan. 13, 2021.
“Wall Street is very quick to ratchet up GDP, they’re quick to ratchet up earnings estimates, anything that’s pro-growth,” Mr. Sherman says. “But even for all the talk of inflation going up, it’s shocking for me to hear that most people are essentially anchoring that to a 2% number.” Mr. Lau replies that perhaps Wall Street has a “fool me once, fool me twice mentality” after inflation’s repeated failure to accelerate despite past forecasts calling for higher prices.
With respect to sell-side analysts’ possible complacency regarding Treasury yields, Mr. Mayberry says Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve. “Markets are thinking that if we get too high of rates, it starts to affect equity markets, and you could start to see the Fed step in. Maybe not necessarily [with] explicit yield curve control, but pick up the pace of their purchases,” he says. “They’ve said they’re going to buy at least $80 billion Treasuries a month and $40 billion mortgages a month. The key word there is `at least,’ so what they’re saying is, `We can buy more.’ If rates go up to a place where the stock market as the risk barometer starts to feel a little bit shaky, they could pick up their purchases, and that will keep rates capped at a certain level.”
• This material contains the opinions of the manager as of the date it was recorded and such opinions are subject to change without notice.
• The material represents DoubleLine’s intellectual property. No portion of this presentation may be published, reproduced, transmitted, or rebroadcast in any media in any form without the express written permission of DoubleLine. To receive permission from DoubleLine, please contact media@doubleline.com.
• The views and forecasts expressed in any materials on this website are as of the date indicated, are subject to change without notice, may not come to pass and do not represent a recommendation or offer of any particular security, strategy, or investment. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide revised assessments in the event of changed circumstances. There can be no assurance that the strategies described will achieve their objectives and goals.
• DoubleLine® is a registered trademark of DoubleLine Capital LP.
• ©2021 DoubleLine
Видео TSS S10 E1: Jeffrey Sherman, Sam Lau and Jeff Mayberry 2021 - Expectations and Risks 1-13-21 канала DoubleLine Capital
“Wall Street is very quick to ratchet up GDP, they’re quick to ratchet up earnings estimates, anything that’s pro-growth,” Mr. Sherman says. “But even for all the talk of inflation going up, it’s shocking for me to hear that most people are essentially anchoring that to a 2% number.” Mr. Lau replies that perhaps Wall Street has a “fool me once, fool me twice mentality” after inflation’s repeated failure to accelerate despite past forecasts calling for higher prices.
With respect to sell-side analysts’ possible complacency regarding Treasury yields, Mr. Mayberry says Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve. “Markets are thinking that if we get too high of rates, it starts to affect equity markets, and you could start to see the Fed step in. Maybe not necessarily [with] explicit yield curve control, but pick up the pace of their purchases,” he says. “They’ve said they’re going to buy at least $80 billion Treasuries a month and $40 billion mortgages a month. The key word there is `at least,’ so what they’re saying is, `We can buy more.’ If rates go up to a place where the stock market as the risk barometer starts to feel a little bit shaky, they could pick up their purchases, and that will keep rates capped at a certain level.”
• This material contains the opinions of the manager as of the date it was recorded and such opinions are subject to change without notice.
• The material represents DoubleLine’s intellectual property. No portion of this presentation may be published, reproduced, transmitted, or rebroadcast in any media in any form without the express written permission of DoubleLine. To receive permission from DoubleLine, please contact media@doubleline.com.
• The views and forecasts expressed in any materials on this website are as of the date indicated, are subject to change without notice, may not come to pass and do not represent a recommendation or offer of any particular security, strategy, or investment. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide revised assessments in the event of changed circumstances. There can be no assurance that the strategies described will achieve their objectives and goals.
• DoubleLine® is a registered trademark of DoubleLine Capital LP.
• ©2021 DoubleLine
Видео TSS S10 E1: Jeffrey Sherman, Sam Lau and Jeff Mayberry 2021 - Expectations and Risks 1-13-21 канала DoubleLine Capital
Показать
Комментарии отсутствуют
Информация о видео
Другие видео канала
Jeffrey Gundlach joins Scott Wapner on CNBC OvertimeRebecca Patterson: Markets and Economic Outlook for 2021TSS S10 E3: Grant Williams on Bubbles, Power Struggles and InflationCh 11 News S3 E4: Do Commodities Have Room to Run?DoubleLine Chicago Event with Jeffrey Gundlach & Jeffrey Sherman, moderated by Sam Lau 1-23-20Jeffrey Gundlach - Barron's Event AKG, Buffalo - 01-10-19Round Table Segment 1, Global Macroeconomy - Part 1DoubleLine Round Table Prime 1-6-20 - Segment 3: Best IdeasRound Table Segment 3, Best IdeasWhy gold price is not at $6k already and why it was 'managed' by the government - Luke GromenMt. Eden Virtual Graduation 2020Jeffrey Gundlach CNBC Squawk on the Street 22-04-12Ch 11 News S3 E2: Breaking Down Bank LoansDoubleLine Round Table Prime 1-6-20 - Segment 2: MarketsJEG Interview Fed Policyyn Alden and Jeff Booth - Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show - E45Jim Bianco Highlights from 2021 DoubleLine Capital Round Table Segment 2 - Financial Markets OutlookJeffrey Gundlach speaks at the DoubleLine Wedbush Event 1-29-20COVID-19 and The Acceleration of Secular Deflation (w/ Raoul Pal & Jeff Booth)Howard Marks "Investors Should Be Worried"