AI Enterprise Math Through 2028 — The Three Numbers That Don't Add Up (MIT 95%)

▶ The AI Money Flow playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLINEVGQA0sVLUqb3PhYZSuu2tCFyOS4m3

Microsoft Copilot just crossed 20 million paid seats — $14 billion in annualized revenue. Same quarter, MIT's NANDA initiative published an 18-month study showing 95% of enterprise GenAI pilots deliver zero measurable ROI. Both are true. The gap between those two numbers is what $725 billion in 2026 capex is silently betting against.

Episode 5 of The AI Money Flow looks at the demand side of the AI economy: who's actually getting value from the seats they buy, why specialized vendors outperform in-house builds 2:1, and what the bear case looks like when seat-license churn starts landing in mid-2026.

▶ Chapters:
00:00 — Hook · $14B Copilot vs 95% MIT failure
00:51 — Macro frame · $725B capex vs $169B target
02:15 — The 95% · MIT NANDA pilot purgatory
04:03 — The Copilot illusion · 20M seats, deferred ROI
05:52 — Agentic theater · Agentforce $800M, 2.4B AWUs
07:50 — Where the 5% win · three patterns, repeated
09:50 — Capex implication · backlog, seat churn, breadth → depth
11:50 — Verdict + next episode · the power grid bottleneck

▶ Key sources:
• MIT NANDA "The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025" (Aug 2025)
• Microsoft Q3 FY26 earnings (Copilot adoption & revenue)
• Salesforce Q4 FY26 earnings (Agentforce ARR & AWU metric)
• Alphabet Q1 2026 earnings (Google Cloud backlog)
• Hyperscaler 2026 capex consensus ($725B aggregate)

▶ Three metrics to watch over the next four quarters:
1. Microsoft Copilot renewal rates by customer cohort (esp. mid-market 2025 buyers)
2. Any AI vendor publishing dollar yield per agentic work unit
3. Vendor consolidation — in-house pilots disappearing in favor of specialists

▶ Next episode: The Power Grid Bottleneck — the half of the equation almost nobody is pricing yet.

#AI #EnterpriseAI #GenAI #MITNANDA #MicrosoftCopilot #SalesforceAgentforce #HyperscalerCapex #AIROI #SemiconductorIndustry #VLSITechExplained

Видео AI Enterprise Math Through 2028 — The Three Numbers That Don't Add Up (MIT 95%) канала VLSI Tech Explained