Drew Dosek on TopStep TV: Hot CPI Flashes a Warning for Stocks

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Verified Pro Trader Drew Dosek joins Andre on TopStep TV to break down a market flashing warning signs after heavy selling in the NASDAQ and S&P.

Drew makes the case that what's unfolding now echoes 2023, when rates climbed toward 5%, and equities pulled back hard. The latest CPI came in hot on the headline, the highest since 2023, but a cooler core reading gave the markets room to breathe. The bigger concern: rate cuts are off the table, and the Fed's own probability tool is now pointing toward hikes as early as December.

He walks through the charts driving his caution: a weekly topping tail on the SMH, a bull flag building on the 10-year yield, and the historic 277% run in semiconductors that's stretched well past the 30 to 40% drawdowns that have followed similar moves every time before. Drew explains why oil prices may be the Fed's only real release valve, why every tick higher in the 10-year pushes investors toward risk-off, and why he's watching 4.55% on the 10-year like a hawk. Plus his take on the SpaceX IPO (hint: a lot of hype), and why he'd rather wait for a technical pullback than chase the last leg of the wave.

Find more from Drew at verifiedinvesting.com, on X at @DrewDosek, and on his new YouTube channel.

#VerifiedInvesting #DrewDosek #StockMarket #TradingAnalysis #FederalReserve #SMH #Semiconductors

📊 WHAT DREW COVERS:
🔵 The 2023 Parallel - Hot labor data and a hot headline CPI culminating much like 2023, when rates hit 5% and the market pulled back ~11%
🔵 Hot CPI, Cooler Core - Headline CPI the highest since 2023, but core cooled to a 0.2% increase (the coolest in months), giving the market a sigh of relief
🔴 SMH's Historic Run - Up ~277% from the April 2025 lows; historically a 230%+ run precedes a 30-40% drawdown. A weekly topping tail just printed - notoriously bearish unless reclaimed
🔴 Rate Hikes Back on the Table - The Fed's probability tool now points to hikes as early as December, not cuts, with new Fed chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC next week
🔵 Oil: The Fed's Magic Wand - Why lower oil is the key to easing inflation, with crude near $89 and the Strait of Hormuz still jammed
🔴 The 10-Year Yield - A weekly bull flag pointing toward a re-test of 5%; near-term resistance near 4.55%, and every tick higher pushes investors toward risk-off
🔵 SpaceX IPO - Drew's take on Friday's IPO: a lot of hype and a sky-high valuation; as a technical trader, he'd rather wait for history and a pullback

🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Drew sees the market on the "warning track" - a historic semiconductor run meeting a bearish weekly signal, rates pushing toward 5%, and sticky oil-driven inflation. Not a call to panic, but a call to respect the risk and wait for confirmation.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 - Intro & "Is 2023 Repeating?": Hot CPI, Cooler Core
1:39 - New All-Time Highs, Semis & the AI Disconnect
2:48 - SMH's Weekly Topping Tail & the Rate-Hike Risk
4:19 - The Fed's Dilemma: Oil as the Magic Wand
6:08 - The 10-Year Yield, Risk-Off & the "Warning Track"
9:18 - The SMH Chart: 277% vs. History's 30-40% Drawdowns
10:28 - SpaceX IPO Hype & Where to Find Drew

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🎙️ Interview courtesy of Top Step TV — @TopstepOfficial: https://www.youtube.com/@TopstepOfficial

👤 FOLLOW DREW
Website: VerifiedInvesting.com
X: @DrewDosek
YouTube: @DrewDosek

⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This video is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Drew Dosek and the Verified Investing team are not registered investment advisors. All trading involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions.

#DrewDosek #VerifiedInvesting #TopStepTV #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #SMH #Semiconductors #CPI #Inflation #RateHikes #TenYearYield #Fed #SpaceX #IPO #Nasdaq #SP500 #Macro #StockMarket2026

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