He Got the Derby Right Last Year, Here’s What He Sees Now

VSiN's "A Numbers Game" with Gill Alexander | April 30, 2026
Kentucky Derby betting picks, longshot horses, and sharp analysis. Here’s what experienced bettors are targeting this year. On this episode of "Unscripted with Bill Krackomberger," Bill shares insider Derby insights from a source who called last year’s winner and breaks down why this year’s race could favor longshots over favorites.

In this video:
- Derby picks from a proven winning bettor
- Why this year’s favorites have major flaws
- Two longshot horses getting attention (20-1, 30-1 range)
- How Japanese horses could impact the race
- Why horse racing is harder to beat than ever
- The reality of betting limits and sportsbook behavior
- How to approach Derby betting without overexposing

📌 Chapters:
00:00 Derby Picks Tease
00:18 Atlantic City, Weather, and East Coast Life
01:24 Why Bill Doesn’t Visit Atlantic City Much Anymore
01:59 Getting Limited at East Coast Sportsbooks
02:19 Sportsbooks Hate Paying Winners
03:09 Treasure Island “Sweatshop” Story
03:58 Vegas Tipping Culture Has Changed
05:45 Bellagio Concierge + Carbone Riviera Reservation
06:18 Carbone Dessert Talk
07:42 Vegas Hookups and $100 Handshake Story
08:37 Old Vegas Tipping vs Today
09:28 Derby Picks Tease Returns
09:45 Paul Matties, Duke Matties, and Sharp Horse Bettors
10:41 Why Horse Racing Is Harder to Beat Now
11:27 Paul Matties Called Last Year’s Derby Winner
12:27 Full Kentucky Derby Betting Read
13:05 Why the American Horses Have Flaws
13:24 Japanese Horses to Watch
13:42 Derby Longshot Picks
14:30 Final Derby Betting Advice
15:07 Exotics, Gimmicks, and Closing Thoughts

Key takeaway: This Derby may not be about picking the favorite, it’s about finding value where the market is weakest. #SportsBetting #KentuckyDerby #HorseRacing #DerbyPicks #BettingStrategy #LongshotBets #VSiN

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Видео He Got the Derby Right Last Year, Here’s What He Sees Now канала VSiN