Goldman Sachs' strategist: Expect significant equity market upside in 2021

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A narrow majority of market strategists surveyed by CNBC predict that U.S. stocks will continue to rally into 2021, with the S&P 500 rising between 8% and 22% next year from their current levels.

Twelve of 20 market strategists from major U.S.-based financial institutions who were polled by CNBC International predicted the S&P would rise to between 4,000 and 4,500 next year. The index finished Monday’s session 3,691.96, just below its 2020 closing high.

Fourteen of the strategists characterized their view on stocks next year as “cautiously optimistic.” Three said they were “very optimistic,” and three said they were “cautious.” The optimistic analysts cited hopes for continued economic stimulus in the United States and the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, which has already begun in a handful of countries including the United Kingdom.

Four strategists predicted S&P would finish at between 3,500 and 4,000 next year, and another four expect the index to decline to the 3,000 to 3,500 range.

CNBC offered the strategists anonymity in exchange for their views. The email-based survey took place from Nov. 25 to Dec. 3.

Vaccines

The wide target range among those polled underscores uncertainty around vaccine production and distribution plans as the Covid-19 immunization process gets underway. The United States is now reporting a weekly average of more than 2,000 coronavirus deaths every day, the worst death toll since the pandemic began, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

But most analysts remain optimistic about the overall markets picture next year.

“We believe that as we head into 2021, the broader story will continue to be the true “reopening” of the economy in the U.S. and globally, driven by the distribution of vaccines and increase in global economic activity,” said an analyst.

“In the scenario that we do see growth and earnings rebound in 2021, while rates remain low and fiscal stimulus is added to the system ... this is a favorable backdrop for risk assets broadly,” that analyst continued.

Another respondent said, “We think low rates combined with a rebound in S&P 500 earnings will cause stocks to hit new highs in 2021.”

Cautious optimism

Despite the ambitious targets for the index among many of those polled by CNBC, even some of the optimistic respondents said they’ll closely watch how the pandemic is managed and the steps governments take to boost the economy.

“I see 15% upside as the world comes back online. Central banks around the globe pumped in so much liquidity to help stem market collapse, that more normalized market conditions give a reason for the next leg in the bull run,” said an analyst who is also watching for “delays in U.S. stimulus, next potential waves of Covid-19 and potential vaccine shortfalls.”

U.S. dollar and other currencies

Strategists shared their outlooks for currencies, with only three of the group naming the U.S. dollar as their favorite from among the dollar, euro, yuan, yen and pound.

Six of 20 analysts identified the euro would deliver the best gains in 2020, while seven picked China’s yuan.

“We expect the euro to be propelled both by the euro zone’s rebound from a double-dip recession after the opening months of the year and by worries over lax U.S. fiscal and monetary policies along with mounting U.S. trade and budget deficits,” one strategist said. “Honorable mention goes to the Australian dollar, on rising commodity prices, and the Chinese yuan, boosted by China’s ongoing economic recovery.”

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