Tuesday debate

Slides, followed by SAGE report

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-12-july-2021

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001345/2021-07-12_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_Publication.pdf

ONS review

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

SAGE, 12th July

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001160/S1300_SAGE_93_minutes_Coronavirus__COVID-19__response__7_July_2021.pdf

Prevalence of infection across the UK

England, Scotland, Wales, R = 1.2 to 1.5

Scotland and Wales = 1.3 to 1.6

England, estimated 21,000 and 42,000 new infections per day

England, around 400 COVID-19 hospital admissions day

Ethnic minorities have been more affected

Reductions in morbidity and mortality in hospital patients

Due to the lower average age of patients and vaccination

Initial results from human challenge studies in unvaccinated young adults

Roadmap modelling

Remain several factors which are not known, some of which cannot be determined before the step is taken

Therefore, peak of the next wave cannot be predicted with accuracy

Key uncertainties are changes in behaviours

(which may be different in different groups)

How quickly variables return to pre-pandemic levels

Vaccine effectiveness uptake

All modelled scenarios show a period of extremely high prevalence of infection lasting until at least the end of August

There are four major risks

Increase in hospitalisations and deaths

Long-COVID workforce absences

Increased risk of new variants emerging

High prevalence and high levels of vaccination = an immune escape variant

(likelihood of this happening is unknown)

Challenge to testing, contact tracing and sequencing

Hospital admissions

Highly uncertain

Likely to reach at least 1000 per day

(563 yesterday)

(Jan, 2021, up to 4,000 per day)

may become challenging for the NHS (medium confidence)

Pre-defining hospital (and ICU) levels would trigger further contingency planning and interventions

It is almost certain that the peak in deaths will be well below the levels seen in January 2021

assuming that no new dominant variant emerges, (high confidence)

Delay would push the wave further towards the autumn and winter
(high confidence)

Recommended

Maintaining people working from home

Masks in crowded indoor spaces

Increasing ventilation

Would reduce transmission and hospitalisations (high confidence)

Isolation of people likely to be infectious (high confidence)

Effective test and trace remains an important part of preventing spread

Vaccine uptake continues to be critical

Видео Tuesday debate канала Dr. John Campbell