$750K Alysheba Stakes Breakdown: Smart Picks & Sneaky Underdogs

It’s the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes (Race 6, Friday at Churchill Downs), featuring a compact but highly competitive six-horse field with two standouts: Fierceness and Locked — both trained by Todd Pletcher and packing big resumes.

🎙️ In this Ferst Off the Bench segment, the hosts break down how to handle a small field, weather conditions, and the real betting value:

🏇 Fierceness (Favorite, 6-5) – Big name recognition, but returns off a long layoff and was disappointing in last year’s Derby. Still dangerous, but not invincible.
🏇 Locked (2-1) – Also trained by Pletcher. Has recent form, won the Santa Anita Handicap and Cigar Mile, and could capitalize on any weakness from Fierceness.
🏇 Most Wanted (5) – Live third option. Solid form, runs well with pace and could grab place/show money.
🏇 Hall of Fame (3) – Strong recent figures but questions remain about consistency and step-up class.
🚫 Value Trap Alert – Horses 1 and 6 (Juskar and Katana) feel like filler — unlikely to hit the board barring total chaos.

🧠 Strategy Note: This is a name-recognition trap race for casual bettors. Don’t just bet Fierceness because you remember the name — consider post-layoff risk, weather, and how Locked’s recent sharp wins give him the real edge in this one.

🐎 Top Horses Mentioned (with Betting Context)

Fierceness – 6-5 favorite, long layoff, big-name bias likely to draw money from casual bettors.
Locked – Recent Grade 1/2 wins, razor sharp, better prep form than Fierceness. Best value.
Most Wanted – Solid underneath play. Slight edge over Hall of Fame for exotics.
Hall of Fame – Grade 2 contender. Has ability, but tough to trust as a win pick.
Juskar (1) & Katana (6) – Extreme longshots. Seen as purse-hunting entries.

00:00 – Intro: Alysheba Stakes Context + Race Setup
00:29 – Track Conditions May Impact Fierceness
01:28 – Locked: Why He Might Be the Better Pletcher Horse
02:17 – Most Wanted & Hall of Fame: Who’s the Better Underneath Pick?
03:50 – Fierceness: Big Name, But Too Much Casual Money?
05:11 – Betting Strategy: Where to Look for Real Value

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