Goldman Sachs Insight: The "Ghost Power" Phenomenon and China’s Strategic AI Energy Blueprint

Executive Summary

A recent macro-data analysis by Goldman Sachs reveals a significant and widening discrepancy between China’s reported power generation and its total social electricity consumption—a phenomenon termed "Ghost Power." As of 2025, the growth rate of electricity consumption exceeded official generation figures by 2.8 percentage points, a gap driven by the rapid, under-reported rise of distributed renewable energy. This shift marks a fundamental transition in how economic health is measured, with electricity consumption now serving as the most accurate "hard indicator" of industrial momentum in the digital age.

To capitalize on this transition, a "Barbell Strategy" has been implemented, balancing aggressive renewable energy expansion with domestic coal as a stabilizing ballast. This strategy facilitates a massive, implicit national subsidy: providing abundant, low-cost electricity to fuel the "Electricity Tigers" of the future—AI data centers and Electric Vehicle (EV) charging networks. By 2030, this energy-first approach is projected to provide a decisive competitive advantage in the global AI race, positioning China with three times the necessary backup power capacity compared to projected global data center demand.

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