Trump's Tariffs Trigger Oil Price Plunge: Who Wins, Who Loses?

The steep drop in crude oil prices, largely attributed to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, is creating significant challenges for emerging market oil exporters. Concerns about a potential economic slowdown due to the trade war have caused Brent crude prices to plummet. While prices have recovered somewhat, they remain a concern.
Emerging market oil exporters like Gulf countries, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are expected to face squeezed budgets and a loss of crucial hard-currency revenues. This can spill over into higher credit risk premiums as oil exports often heavily contribute to public finances. Current oil prices are below the average budget assumptions for many oil exporters, with Angola and Bahrain being particularly sensitive.
Angola has already felt the pressure, facing a margin call on a total return swap. The country's high external debts and uncertain Eurobond market access made it opt for collateralized loans previously. Rising yields on Angola's dollar bonds reflect the selloff in risky assets after the U.S. tariffs.
In Nigeria, the drop in oil prices could undermine recent economic reforms and force a budget revision, as oil accounts for about 90% of its exports and a large portion of its budget. The central bank has also had to increase dollar sales to manage the naira.
While oil importers like Turkey, India, Pakistan, Morocco, and much of emerging Europe could see benefits from lower crude prices, these gains might be offset by the significant headwinds from the trade war and other downside risks. Gulf oil producers with higher reserves and lower debt, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, might weather the situation better but could still see complications in their spending plans. Overall, the negative impacts on exporters might outweigh the benefits for importing countries.
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Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-price-drop-turns-up-heat-emerging-market-crude-exporters-2025-04-15/
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