How sophisticated traders make billions (especially) during war

Savvy trading companies are making billions in risk-free profits, as dislocations in oil markets ripple across the world.

Real-world buyers of oil are paying high premiums bring in new supply, while futures traders have wagered--wrongly so far--that prices would soon fall as supply resumes.

The shortages were first felt in East Asia, in major refining hubs in Singapore, Japan, Korea, and India. Spot prices rocketed immediately following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

But prices were suppressed in North America, and particularly on NYMEX futures markets for WTI.

We explain the mechanics of an arbitrage trade, and how commodities traders earn billions in profits.

Closing scene, Xinjiang

Resources and links:

So What Is the Real Oil Price Right Now?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-18/iran-war-what-is-the-real-oil-price-right-now

WHY WHO’S F/AROUND IN THE OIL FUTURES MARKET MIGHT FIND OUT IN 7 DAYS
https://justdario.com/2026/04/why-whos-f-around-in-the-oil-futures-market-might-find-out-in-7-days/

Commodity Traders Reap Billions in Profit as War Upends Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/commodity-traders-reap-billions-in-profit-as-war-upends-markets

Vitol Made About $2 Billion in First Quarter Despite War Losses
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-19/vitol-made-about-2-billion-in-first-quarter-despite-war-losses

$140, and going higher: That's the real price of oil, right now. Oil traders will be wiped out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ilufxBjvy8

More Airline Bankruptcies May Be Coming — JetBlue And Frontier Face The Highest Risk
https://viewfromthewing.com/more-airline-bankruptcies-may-be-coming-jetblue-and-frontier-face-the-highest-risk/

Bloomberg, Fuel Tankers U-Turn to Asia as War Worsens Supply Crunch
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/fuel-cargoes-redirecting-to-asia-with-supply-crunch-worsening

Reuters, Trump says gas prices will drop as soon as Iran war is over
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-gas-prices-will-drop-soon-iran-war-is-over-2026-04-30/

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