Why Surprise Attacks Rarely Cause Wars (Despite What You'd Think)

Is surprise ever really important enough in real crises to prevent bargaining? Today, we look at first strike advantages as an explanation for war. We begin by looking at "preemptive war" in pure theoretical terms, which verifies that first strike advantages can override the incentive to bargain. Then we transition to the empirical record, which demonstrates a lack of preemptive wars. We close by trying to better understand why preemptive wars are not more common.

0:00 Can Crisis Bargaining Cover First Strike Advantages?
0:44 The Theory of Preemptive War
3:52 The Frequency of Preemptive War in Practice
5:02 Why Isn't Preemptive War More Common?

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By Kremlin.ru:
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71528

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