Babak Emamian Alhadath 26 Jan 2022 - Is US Sanctions a realistic option if Russia invade Ukraine

Babak Emamian interview Alhadath Alarabiya
26 Jan 2022
Is US Sanctions a realistic option if Russia invade Ukraine
US Sanctions on Iran reduced tension in the region with no impact on World economy but Russia is not Iran.
1) Meaningful Sanctions will hurt Russia but it will also hurt West economies.
2) Russia is a major energy supplier to World economy with about $900billion International Trade.
3) Iran absence with $25-50billion international Trade had almost no impact.
4) Taking out Russia from World energy market will cause shortages, blackouts and price increases.
5) Any restriction on supply could increase crude oil prices to $120 per barrel.
6) Already West inflation rate triple the 2% target about 6% that could go up to 8% and beyond.
7) Interest rates are under pressure to go up and further hype in inflation could escalate to 10-12%.
8)West economies cannot operate with 10-12% interest rates therefore recession.
9) As autocracies the Russia, China and Iran leaders can afford human and economic losses but it is different for US and European leaders. Autocratic systems handle economic pressure better than Democracies.

Dispute Resolution
1) Russia is not Iran where US-Iran dispute is ideological and extremely difficult to resolve.
2) US-Russia dispute over Ukraine is territorial.
3) World leaders behave differently when disputes are territorial than ideological.
4) West must not overreact with General Sanctions but Targeted Sanctions.
5) Ukraine invasion is a bad war for Russia. Even without US sanctions it is going to cost.

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