Inflation or Deflation - What Happens Next?
With such an unprecedented synchronised global growth shock and fiscal and monetary stimulus, many people think that we will get either deflation or inflation over the coming months. This video looks at the causes of deflation and inflation, how fiscal & monetary policies can influence it, what history can teach us and we examine some of the forecasts about what will happen next.
Here is the link for the FRED inflation probability graph I mentioned in the video https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qIVp
Video timing with thanks to Complex
00:00 Intro
00:54 What is inflation
01:12 changes in inflation incl. deflation (price of loaf of bread)
01:50 consumption baskets
03:27 What drives inflation? (different types of inflation)
05:16 size of Fed's balance sheet increasing
06:14 why didn't all the money-printing stimulate a "huge bout of inflation"
06:30 the Velocity of Money
07:30 Yellen on why no inflation
07:45 NAIRU
08:50 the Liquidity Trap
09:42 Who controls inflation
10:35 value of stocks depends on inflation; valuations highest around 2% inflation; equity de-rates either way
11:24 Hyperinflation
12:00 case of Zimbabwe
12:40 case of post-WWI Germany
14:00 hyperinflation helps/hinders if ...
15:10 Deflation
16:00 inflation 1870-1920
16:28 deflationary spiral
17:38 deflation helps/hinders if ...
18:34 What to watch
18:42 FRED/Price Pressures Measure (PPM) index
19:26 PPM model description
19:50 BoE Monetary Policy report, fan charts
20:34 Forecasts
22:00 forecasts of NIESR (UK)
22:44 negative interest rates in Euro-zone
23:40 conclusions
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Recommended PensionCraft YouTube Playlists
- There are many different types of investment strategies. In this playlist we look at a number of these so that you decide what is right for you. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLlqeAQqQK7Tci3mKU21drdoRFoNmIVbDd
- Bewildered by investment? Start with this playlist https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLlqeAQqQK7TcG9QNlRJ_QjI8iX_q_I8jo
- Building blocks for your portfolio https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLlqeAQqQK7TdRdp-hLnL5oxsaRjJZVSyn
If you like our content and want us to continue to produce it, you can support us with a one-off payment here https://paypal.me/pensioncraft
#PensionCraft #Inflation #Deflation
Видео Inflation or Deflation - What Happens Next? канала PensionCraft
Here is the link for the FRED inflation probability graph I mentioned in the video https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qIVp
Video timing with thanks to Complex
00:00 Intro
00:54 What is inflation
01:12 changes in inflation incl. deflation (price of loaf of bread)
01:50 consumption baskets
03:27 What drives inflation? (different types of inflation)
05:16 size of Fed's balance sheet increasing
06:14 why didn't all the money-printing stimulate a "huge bout of inflation"
06:30 the Velocity of Money
07:30 Yellen on why no inflation
07:45 NAIRU
08:50 the Liquidity Trap
09:42 Who controls inflation
10:35 value of stocks depends on inflation; valuations highest around 2% inflation; equity de-rates either way
11:24 Hyperinflation
12:00 case of Zimbabwe
12:40 case of post-WWI Germany
14:00 hyperinflation helps/hinders if ...
15:10 Deflation
16:00 inflation 1870-1920
16:28 deflationary spiral
17:38 deflation helps/hinders if ...
18:34 What to watch
18:42 FRED/Price Pressures Measure (PPM) index
19:26 PPM model description
19:50 BoE Monetary Policy report, fan charts
20:34 Forecasts
22:00 forecasts of NIESR (UK)
22:44 negative interest rates in Euro-zone
23:40 conclusions
Sign up to our free weekly market roundup to get news and views about what's going on in the stock market and wider economy https://pensioncraft.com/market-roundup/
Why not join our membership on Patreon where you can learn via our Slack chat forum, take part in our regular members-only live Q&A webinars and gain access to a library of exclusive videos and resources. To find out more about this click here https://patreon.com/pensioncraft
We rely on your support to keep producing free content via YouTube. Please help us to remain independent and producing new content by supporting us on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/pensioncraft/join
This is what else PensionCraft Offers:
- Book a Power Hour with Ramin so he can answer your questions in a one-to-one coaching session via a video call: https://pensioncraft.com/register/power-hour/
- Understand investment in more depth with my online courses https://pensioncraft.com/courses-we-offer/
Recommended PensionCraft YouTube Playlists
- There are many different types of investment strategies. In this playlist we look at a number of these so that you decide what is right for you. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLlqeAQqQK7Tci3mKU21drdoRFoNmIVbDd
- Bewildered by investment? Start with this playlist https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLlqeAQqQK7TcG9QNlRJ_QjI8iX_q_I8jo
- Building blocks for your portfolio https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLlqeAQqQK7TdRdp-hLnL5oxsaRjJZVSyn
If you like our content and want us to continue to produce it, you can support us with a one-off payment here https://paypal.me/pensioncraft
#PensionCraft #Inflation #Deflation
Видео Inflation or Deflation - What Happens Next? канала PensionCraft
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