This Is Going to Be Worse Than Everyone Expected — Lyn Alden

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Renowned macro analyst and investment strategist Lyn Alden has described the US bond market as a complete mess, a situation that could further worsen in the coming weeks and months per recent reports. The results of the Treasury Department’s most recent auction on 30 year bonds show that demand for US government debt might be shrinking. During the Thursday auction, bidders showed their lowest interest in the long term 30 year Treasury Bond since December 2021. Primary dealers, banks and other financial institutions approved to trade securities with the Federal Reserve, had to buy about 18.2 percent of debt, more than the typical 11 percent. Yields on the long term bonds are also rising rapidly to attract investors. The August high yield came in at 4.189 percent, which climbed to a high of 4.345 percent in September. During last week’s auction, the highest yield came in at 4.837 percent, the highest level since 2007.

According to a recent Deutsche Bank research note, the lagging demand for US bonds is one of the factors helping to press Treasury yields higher. Thursday’s 16 basis point increase was the biggest daily jump since the market turmoil unleashed in March 2020. The lagging demand despite high yields will be a worrisome problem at any period and even more so when the government is running on such a large deficit and needs to issue more bonds. According to a recent report from the Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit for the 2023 fiscal year was 1.7 trillion dollars, an over 20 percent increase compared to 2022’s 1.4 trillion dollar deficit. The rapidly climbing US debt has been described by the IMF as worrying and deteriorating.

Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, the director of IMF’s research department, said in a recent statement:

“Most worrying is the case of the United States, where fiscal deficits have deteriorated substantially in 2023. Fiscal policy in the US should not be procyclical, even less so at this stage of the inflation cycle. With lower growth, higher interest rates and reduced fiscal space, structural reforms of the right kind at the right time become key.”

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Credit: Paul Barron Network
Market Trends & Macro w/ Lyn Alden
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