Is an escalation trap locking the US into a war with Iran? Robert Pape explains.

Political scientist Robert Pape outlines a concerning scenario where a 75% probability of ground intervention becomes reality. By detailing the strategic stages of an escalation trap, he highlights how limited military deployments can rapidly spiral into full-scale conflict. As the former advisor to every White House since 9/11 argues, the dynamics of nuclear breakout risks and shifting geopolitical power in the Middle East suggest that traditional deterrence strategies may be failing. This breakdown offers a sobering look at how modern military policy might be pushing the nation toward an unintended and irreversible engagement.
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