Why Ford will fail in Australia | Auto Expert John Cadogan

Ford in Australia is out of touch and systematically vulnerable to commercial forces beyond its control. Could it do a 'Holden' in the foreseeable future?

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A Ford press release alert crossed my inbox on the 22nd. Normally I lose consciousness when this happens. (That miracle cure for insomnia - when arrogance and irrelevance collide … ie, anything Ford considers to be newsworthy.)

"High performance icon to thrill Australian customers as Ford Mustang Mach 1 in manual and automatic transmissions set to debut in Australian showrooms."

I immediately thought: If this is a lottery, what’s second prize? Two of those death-trap shitboxes?

“Following the success of Mustang BULLITT and Mustang R-SPEC, we are very excited to introduce this highly capable, track ready Mustang to our Australian Mustang fans. The unique styling, which pays homage to the original model, is more than worthy of its legendary badge.” - Andrew Birkic

Andrew Birkic there - President and CEO, Ford Shitsville and Sheepshaggistan (or, as I like to call him: ‘Big Birk’.)

What is this “success” to which you allude, dude?

Let me paint the Mustang sales picture for you, shall I, lest you erroneously believe this vehicle is actually a success, as alleged by B-squared? Mustang sales peaked in ‘Straya at about 9000 units in 2017. That was a win - no argument.

But the next year, in 2018, they fell 30 per cent. In 2019 … a further 38 per cent implosion. And this year, Mustang sales have jumped off another cliff - 36 per cent down so far. ‘On track’ (if that’s the right term) for 2900 sales by the end of 2020.

So, let me get this straight: you Ford ‘Straya dudes took one of the world’s muscle car icons, which is roughly as old as me (within months, actually) with huge cachet … and you managed to turn more than 9000 sales into less than 3000 - in four years (inclusive). Well done. ‘Result’ as they say on The Sweeney.

So - that’s corporate out-of-touchedness. Here’s strategic vulnerability.

The fact is, Ford in ‘Straya is one vehicle away from outright commercial collapse - and that vehicle is Ranger, and (to some extent) its spin-off, Everest. Everest exists only thanks to Ranger, and they roll on essentially the same architecture.

Ranger 4X4 is the big win for Big Birk, with 26,377 sales so far this year, augmented by about 1800 Ranger 4X2s and about 4000 Everests. Together these comprise 32,000 of the almost-41,000 sales Ford Shitsville has made so far this year.

It’s about 80 per cent of the business.

In other words: Endura, Escape, Fiesta, Focus, Mondeo, and Puma are all nowhere. Statistically, nobody buys them. This is the real ‘Ford ‘Straya’ story - and it’s not being reported because publishers want Ford’s advertising revenue, right up to the day Dr Kevorkian gets on the line from Dearborn.

Every non-Ranger based vehicle in the Ford inventory is costing the business money just by being there, available for sale. Homologation, parts, training - whatever. Ford would be more profitable in Shitsville without them.

I guess the Ford Transit is successful in the context of vans, with about 2300 sales so far this year: Number three, behind Hiace and iLoad. Just to be fair.

But without Ranger and its derivatives, Ford Shitsville would have slightly less commercial footprint than Chinese upstart, MG. Or, it be slightly in front of LDV (by about 2500 sales) at this point of 2020.

To me, this is huge strategic risk. ‘Vulnerability’ is a better word. It takes just one disruption for Ford’s business to collapse in Australia.

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