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Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming - Matthew Piepenburg's Last WARNING

Most People Have No Idea What Is Coming - Matthew Piepenburg's Last WARNING

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Americans' frustration with inflation may have been key to Donald Trump's election victory. Still, the president-elect might be laying the groundwork for future price increases before his inauguration in January 2025. On Monday, Trump announced sweeping new tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, aiming to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking. According to his statement on Truth Social, all imports from Canada and Mexico would be subject to a 25% tariff, while goods from China would face an additional 10% levy.
Investors appear optimistic about the potential economic boost from Trump’s anticipated policy measures, sparking a sell-off in precious metals and pushing U.S. stock markets to record highs. However, concerns over the nation's fiscal health persist. Recent data reveals that in November 2024, the U.S. national debt surpassed 36 trillion dollars—an increase of 1 trillion dollars since July, underscoring the rapid pace of debt accumulation. While these tariffs aim to protect American industries, critics warn they could further strain household budgets and exacerbate inflationary pressures.
Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz AG, shares his insights on the potential effects of tariffs on inflation, economic growth, and the outlook for the U.S. dollar amid what he describes as the "craziest times" for the economy. Piepenburg believes that while tariffs will drive up costs for consumers, they might also encourage companies to restore jobs back to the U.S. Despite this, he argues that achieving sustainable economic growth is nearly impossible when debt-to-GDP ratios surpass critical levels, such as 110–120%.
Corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. are surging. In August, 63 corporate bankruptcy filings were recorded, a significant increase from 49 in July. This trend reflects mounting financial pressures on businesses, likely influenced by rising costs, tighter credit conditions, and slowing economic growth. On the personal debt side, delinquencies and credit card debt are also climbing, further highlighting the strain across corporate and individual finances. These developments suggest a broader need for attention to economic resilience and credit management strategies. Moreover, In October, hiring advanced at its slowest pace since 2020, with non-farm payrolls increasing by just 12,000 jobs — significantly below expectations. In addition, job growth for the past two months has also been weaker than initially reported.
Matthew Piepenburg underscores several alarming economic trends, such as rising credit card delinquencies, surging interest payments, stagnant manufacturing and retail sales, and downward job revisions. In his view, these indicators provide clear evidence that the economy is progressing toward a hard landing. He argues that current measures are woefully insufficient to tackle the deep-rooted structural challenges driven by excessive debt and reliance on artificial monetary interventions.

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